Harris’ path to victory narrows as Trump wins Georgia (updated)

Upper line

Former President Donald Trump took an election-night lead over Vice President Kamala Harris after winning Georgia and North Carolina, and he’s ahead in five other battleground states just after polls closed — leaving Harris just short of 270 electoral votes.

Key facts

Trump’s victories in North Carolina and Georgia, according to The Associated Press’s race calls, brought his vote tally to 247, while Harris had won 210 and trailed Trump in the vote count for five other seats that are still too close to call.

The losses in the two southeastern battlegrounds significantly narrow Harris’ paths to victory, making her more dependent on the three “blue wall” states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Harris will still reach exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins all three of these northern swing states, plus all the other non-swing states President Joe Biden won in 2020 — even though she is currently behind in all three.

Pennsylvania is now a must-win for Harris, as a Trump victory there (along with victories in the other non-swing states he won in 2020) would give him 270 electoral votes.

The vice president could theoretically win if she secured Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan (allowing her to lose Wisconsin), or she could win through Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada (while losing Michigan) — though that’s less likely.

Key background

If elected, Harris would be the first woman and first person of South Asian descent to be elected to the White House, following a whirlwind campaign in which she was elevated to the top of the ticket to replace Biden after he decisively won the Democratic primaries in each state. and dropped out of the race. Harris’ entry into the contest marked a reunification of her party after Biden’s resistance to bowing out of the race — even as Trump surged in the polls — exposed deep divisions in the party. Democrats quickly rallied around Harris, hours after Biden announced his historic decision to step aside on July 21, less than a month after his subsequent debate with Trump on June 27. Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as his running mate two weeks before the Democratic National Convention. She enjoyed a brief honeymoon period in polls and was widely seen as the winner of her first and only debate with Trump on Sept. 10, but Trump has narrowed the poll gap and the two were nearly independent nationally and in all battlegrounds heading into the election Day. Harris, 60, the daughter of a South Indian mother, a renowned breast cancer researcher, and a black father, a renowned economist, was born in Oakland, attended Howard University as an undergraduate and received her law degree from the University of California Hastings. She was elected San Francisco’s attorney general in 2004 and became the first black person, first woman, and first Asian American to serve as California attorney general in 2011. She was elected to the Senate in 2016 and ran for president in 2019.

Key

Harris has largely focused her campaign on criticizing Trump and her warnings about the dangers she says he poses if he is re-elected. She has called him a “fascist,” has teamed up with prominent anti-Trump Republicans, including former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., to campaign against him, and has repeatedly highlighted his vow to seek retribution against his political opponents, which he referred to recently as “the enemy from within.” In her shortened campaign timeline, some of Harris’ policy proposals have been light on details, and she has faced the difficult task of differentiating herself from Biden without fueling criticism of his administration. Harris has also backtracked — or remained silent — on some of her earlier, more progressive policy proposals, including a federal fracking ban and decriminalization of illegal border crossings (both of which she said she no longer supports). She and her campaign have refused to say definitively whether she still supports other policies she once supported, including decriminalizing prostitution and reparations for slavery to black Americans. Harris has promised to implement economic policies to boost the middle class if elected, including not raising taxes on Americans making $400,000 or less, a federal ban on price gouging and no tax on tips. She has also promised to expand the child tax credit for lower- and middle-class families and wants to provide $25,000 down payment assistance to first-time homebuyers.

Chief critic

Trump has cast Harris as a puppet of the Biden administration and the Democratic Party and accused her of inauthenticity, coining the nickname “lyin’ Kamala” for the vice president. Trump has suggested, without evidence, that Harris fabricated her college summer job at McDonald’s and has even questioned her race. In one of his more incendiary attacks against Harris during the campaign cycle, Trump suggested that Harris “became” black, even though she has spoken about her biracial heritage repeatedly throughout her decades-long political career. He has also blamed her for the spike in illegal border crossings under the Biden administration and record inflation rates last summer (which have since leveled off) and attacked her intelligence, repeatedly claiming she has a “low IQ,” is “lazy” and “slow “.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up By Razor-Thin 1 Point In Final Forbes/HarrisX Poll (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Near Tie in ‘Blue Wall’ as Trump, Harris Battle for Pennsylvania (Latest Update) (Forbes)

Can Trump and Harris Join Tomorrow’s Election? It’s Possible – Here’s What Would Happen (Forbes)

‘Blue Mirage’ and ‘Red Mirage’ Explained: Why Tomorrow’s First Swing State Vote Count Could Be Misleading (Forbes)

Here’s When We’ll Know Trump-Harris Election Results in Must-Win Swing States (Forbes)