Would Harris’ election victory bring stability to US-EU ties on trade and security?

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A victory for Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris in the US presidential election would be very welcome in Europe as it would likely signal transatlantic continuity on issues from support for Ukraine to trade, analysts say.

As millions of Americans vote Tuesday between Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump — who remains neck and neck in recent polls — European policymakers will consider how the election could affect the continent’s trade ties and security, as well as Kiev’s resistance to Russia’s full-scale invasion.

“Overall, we can assume that at the European level, at the multilateral level, at the global foreign policy level, it will be a continuation of what Joe Biden has done so far,” says Serge Jaumain, professor at the Université Libre de. Brussels (UBL).

One of the most pressing issues in relation to the US and the EU under the new president will be aid to Ukraine. Washington has given Ukraine tens of billions of dollars in military and financial aid – more than any other ally – since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Harris has vowed to follow in President Joe Biden’s footsteps and continue his administration’s policy of supporting Ukraine, in contrast to Trump, who has criticized the level of US aid given to Kiev. The European Union and its member states have provided at least 57 billion euros to Ukraine in financial aid to date, and analysts say the bloc will be hoping for a Harris victory to maintain the status quo on US funding going forward.

Bart Szewczyk, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund, said the “common challenge” for the US and Europe was to help Ukraine prevail by “ensuring the continuity of arms supplies and economic assistance to Ukraine”.

“It’s priority number one, two and three,” he told Euronews in an interview.

But while a Harris presidency would be good news for Europe on this front, she could still urge the bloc to contribute a larger share of aid to Kiev as she may struggle to send significant aid to Ukraine through the US Congress, warns experts.

The trade barrier

On trade issues, Harris as president would be a more straightforward proposition for Europe than Trump, who has promised to impose 10% tariffs on imports from all nations and 60% tariffs on imports from China.

That would have a huge impact on trade between the EU and the US, with Trump warning last month that the EU would “pay a big price” for not buying enough US goods if he won the election.

Harris would mainly represent a business-as-usual approach, although she could push the EU to take an increasingly tough stance on China — be it with stronger restrictions on trade in advanced technologies or higher tariffs on Chinese imports, according to analysts interviewed.

There are some difficulties to be ironed out between the EU and the US, such as tariffs on European steel and aluminium. The United States has lifted the tariffs that Trump imposed in 2018 on imports of these metals from the EU, and negotiations are expected to continue after the election to find a permanent solution, Szewczyk said.

Under a Harris administration, “trade policy and the establishment of constructive trade relationships with allies and partners will continue,” he added.

While Europe will hope for continuity and consistency in its relationship with the next US administration, the bloc may have to prepare for change with a country increasingly looking inward regardless of its political leadership, the analysts warned.

“There is a trend in the United States today that is becoming more and more isolationist and increasingly aware of defending American interests, regardless of the consequences,” said Jaumain of UBL.

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“And there is also a desire … to gradually withdraw from more international issues to focus first and foremost on the United States.”