It is starting to look like Donald Trump will win the election

On By Littum

Donald Trump might be able to pull it off. It is too early to say; we may not know until the middle of next year, or when some antediluvian state finishes counting by hand. Plus Electoral College madness means Trump could rise in the popular vote but still lose via Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (reverse Hillary). But consider the following:

At first he took Florida lightly, including Miami-Dade. Joe Biden won this county in 2020; Hillary Clinton swept it by nearly 30 points in 2016. What has made the difference? Trump is doing well among Latino voters, presumably men.

Second, there are hints that he has gained ground among the wealthy in Virginia, who are supposed to be a lock for Kamala; Wasps with stingers are her people.

Third, it looks like he’s scooping Georgia, which could have been competitive and certainly suggests the Sun Belt is safe (Texas isn’t in play either). Fourth, an NBC exit poll gives him a six-point advantage among independents in the critical state of Pennsylvania.

Exit polls generally indicate “the future of democracy” as a leading issue, which breathless television commentators assumed was a good sign for Harris. But many Republicans believe the Democrats stole the 2020 election, so they may be feeling anxious about that issue, too.

The other big issue is the economy, and Trump measures stronger than Kamala on that for obvious reasons (ie inflation). No wonder election betting seems to favor the Republicans, along with New York Times and Decision Desk HQ.

But yes, there is a long night ahead and none of us know anything for sure. It’s a joy to watch British TV hosts reveal the latest they read on CNN as if it were a personal insight (“I now predict that Harris will take Vermont and the Pope will carry the Vatican”).

But what we can say decisively at this point is that of the four possibilities – Trump easy win, narrow victory; Harris narrow win, easy win – Harris’ easy win is off the table. Despite January 6, a rape case, “eating the pets” and a comedian calling Puerto Rico a “floating garbage lake”. I wonder if Joe Biden might have done better?