Early voting numbers ‘scary’ for Harris, Democrats ‘panicking’, ex-Obama campaign manager warns

Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina said on MSNBC Sunday that the early voting numbers are “scary” for the Harris campaign, as data shows Republicans making significant early voting gains in battleground states compared to 2020.

“The early voting numbers are a little scary,” Messina said on “Inside with Jen Psaki” when asked what the Harris campaign’s biggest concerns are in the days leading up to an election.

“The Republicans didn’t do what they did last time,” Messina added. “Last time Trump said don’t vote early, so they didn’t. The Republicans have an early vote advantage. When the early votes come in, it’s going to look a little bit different than 2020, and that’s scary.”

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Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina on MSNBC Sunday. (MSNBC)

But Messina said Democrats are pleased with early voter turnout from two key voting blocs — women and young voters, the demographics the Harris campaign is banking on.

“Women voters make up 55% of early voters, and over the last 10 days, young voters in these battleground states have come out in what appear to be early voting, historic numbers,” he said.

Still, Messina added, the number of early votes has caused many “of my friends to call me panicked” when comparing the data to 2020.

While early voting has traditionally been favored by Democrats, both parties have pushed voters to cast ballots early this election — and the emphasis on early voting has had a seismic effect.

New numbers released in Nevada, a key swing state, show historic early voting numbers for Republicans, who led Democrats by about 5% in early voting, which ended in person Friday. Early voting ended in the state with 393,811 votes cast for Republicans, 344,539 for Democrats and 287,762 for other affiliations, according to the website of the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

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Voters cast their ballots during the last day of early voting in Gwinnett County, Georgia on November 1, 2024. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The roughly 49,000-vote advantage that Republicans held over Democrats at the end of the week is a stark contrast from 2020, when Democrats ended early voting with a 43,000-vote advantage.

Some political pundits and politicians outside the Republican Party have also sounded the alarm for Nevada Democrats about the GOP’s early vote surge.

“Republicans are kicking our ass in early voting,” Nevada’s Democratic congresswoman said Dina Titus said during a Harris rally in North Las Vegas. “We can’t let that happen.”

IN Georgia, Republicans appears confident that the state’s record early voting numbers will favor Trump. The former commander in chief lost Georgia by less than 1% in 2020, and Republicans have spent enormous time and resources trying to win it back.

During the early voting period between October 15 and November 1, nearly 4 million Georgians cast in-person or absentee ballots, more than half of the state’s active voters. Over 700,000 people who already voted in 2024 did not vote at all in 2020, according to Georgia votes. Meanwhile, the top three counties for voter turnout rural areas won by Trump in 2020.

A source on the Trump campaign told the New York Post Sunday that in four battleground states — Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, “Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not yet voted, and many have not even requested a postal ballot.” outlet reported.

Citing early voting data from Arizona, The Post reported that returned mail and early voting party registrations currently have Republicans up by 8 points. Compared to 2020 numbers, Republicans currently lead by 9 points, according to the outlet.

Voters cast their ballots at an early voting location in Atlanta, Georgia on October 31, 2024. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Similarly, the Nevada Post shows that Republicans are up by one point in returned mail and early voting party registration. Compared to 2020, Republicans lead by 9 points, the outlet reported.

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“This appears to be the first time Republicans have ever achieved early voting in North Carolina,” the Post wrote.

While Democrats are leading in early voting in Pennsylvania, Republicans are reportedly significantly better placed than they were in 2020, according to the Post.

Fox News’ Andrew Mark Miller and Elizabeth Elkind contributed to this report.