What happens if there is a tie? Here’s why Trump is likely to defeat Harris in a presidential tie-breaker

On November 6, 2024By Littum

Upper line

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the national polls and in the seven swing states — but there’s a slim chance of a tie in the Electoral College between the two candidates, and in the rare event there is one, it would likely lead to Trump becoming president.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at the Resch Center on Oct. 30, 2024 … (+) in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

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Key facts

If the election ends in a tie, with Trump and Harris each receiving 269 electoral votes, the House will vote to choose the next president and the Senate will choose the vice president, when the House meets on January 6, 2025.

Instead of the House holding a standard vote, each state delegation would choose a single candidate from among the three who received the most electoral votes, under the rules set out in the 12th Amendment to the Constitution – meaning large states like California (52 members of the House) and Texas (38) has as much influence as states like Wyoming (only one member).

The 50 delegations would almost certainly vote along party lines, likely giving Republicans the advantage since they are favored to control the majority of state delegations after Election Day (although the race for which party controls the majority of seats in the House is closely contested).

The Senate, which is expected to shift to Republican control, would then vote to choose the vice president, who would need 51 votes to win.

If a presidential candidate is unable to secure the votes of 26 delegations by Inauguration Day, January 20, and the Senate has already elected a vice president, that person will become acting president until the vote in the House of Representatives is decided.

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Is a tied race likely?

A 269-269 Electoral College tie is considered highly unlikely. FiveThirtyEight predicts a 0.2% chance of neither candidate reaching 270, while statistician Nate Silver puts the odds at 0.4% (either due to a tie or a third-party winning electorate). There are several scenarios that could result in a tie, including if Harris wins the states Biden won in 2020 except Michigan and Pennsylvania, or if Harris flips North Carolina and Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. There would also be a tie if Harris wins the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Trump wins the other four swing states plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers Omaha and typically votes Democratic, while the rest of the state is reliably red .

What to look for

The election could also become “conditional” if a third-party candidate wins electoral votes and neither Trump nor Harris reach the 270-vote threshold to win. Based on polls, it is nearly impossible for voters in any state to assign electors to a third-party candidate, but about half of the states do not legally require their electors to vote for the chosen candidate’s electors, meaning that if Trump and Harris each win 269 electors, some could go rogue and choose a third-party candidate who would then be in the running for the House vote. “Faithless voters” are rare, but not without precedent – in the 2016 election, five voted for Hillary Clinton, and two pledged to Trump, voted for other candidates.

big number

94. That’s the number of electoral votes up for grabs in the seven swing states plus Nebraska’s 2nd District. If Harris wins all the non-swing states Biden won in 2020, she would have 225 electoral votes, as expected, leaving Trump with 219.

Has an Electoral College ever happened?

There hasn’t been a tie in the Electoral College since 1800, in the race between former President Thomas Jefferson and incumbent President John Adams, when Congress took 36 ballots to elect Jefferson. In 1824, several candidates won electoral votes, with Andrew Jackson receiving the most, but not the majority. The House elected John Quincy Adams instead.

Key background

Each state is designated a total number of electors equal to its representation in the House and Senate, while the District of Columbia has three, for a total of 538. State political parties are tasked with nominating electors, typically at their state party conventions. The Constitution prohibits federal government employees and federally elected officials from serving as electors; the individuals are typically notable political figures, such as state and local elected officials. Electors are “obligated” but not bound to vote for their state’s winning candidate, although some states punish “faithless voters” who go rogue and vote for another candidate. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not use a winner-take-all approach to assigning electors, instead assigning them based on a partial proportional system. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is considered hugely important in closely contested elections like this one, as it would give Harris exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins all the states Biden won, plus the “blue wall” of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, what is considered for her the clearest path to victory.