Kamala Harris predicted to win by almost every major forecaster

As the polls open, Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win the election by nearly every major forecaster.

Nate Silver’s latest forecast now gives Harris a slight lead in the Electoral College, projecting her with a 50 percent chance of victory, compared to former President Donald Trump’s 49.6 percent. The model shows Harris securing 271 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 267.

This marks a shift from Silver’s previous predictions, in which Trump had a narrow advantage. On Monday, Silver’s forecast favored Trump with a 50.4 percent chance to Harris’ 49.2 percent, and the day before, Trump had a 52.6 percent probability of winning to Harris’ 47 percent.

Other aggregators repeat the close race, but also give Harris a slight edge. FiveThirtyEight currently projects her with a 50 percent chance of winning, predicting 270 Electoral College votes for Harris to Trump’s 268.

Meanwhile, British newspaper The Economist predicts Harris will win 276 votes to Trump’s 262 — a scenario also echoed by forecaster Larry Sabato. Race to the White House predicts she will win 275 electoral votes.

Her biggest win is predicted by CNanalysis, which predicts the vice president will win 308 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 230, giving Harris a 70 percent margin of victory.

The only forecasters showing Trump expected to win are DecisionDeskHQ, which shows Trump expected to win 276 votes to Harris’ 262, and JL Partners, which shows the former president will win 287 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 251. DecisionDeskHQ shows Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning, while JL Partners shows he has a 60 percent chance of winning.

Newsweek has reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

Since Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee in late July, the polls have been close, with Harris taking the lead for most of August and September, but in early October, the vice president saw his chances plummet as Trump made gains in key battleground states states. Since then, the race has been almost a draw.

Recent polls show the candidates within only 1 and 2 points of each other. For example, AtlasIntel’s latest poll, conducted between November 3 and 4, shows Trump leading by 1 point, while Research Co.’s latest poll, conducted between November 2 and 3, shows Harris ahead by 2 points.

In both polls, the candidate’s lead is within the margin of error. Harris and Trump are also within 1 and 2 points of each other in each swing state, according to FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver.

Overall, FiveThirtyEight’s tracker has Harris ahead by 1.2 points, while Silver’s tracker has her ahead by 1 point, showing how narrow the margins are in this election.

“When I say the odds in this year’s presidential election are as close to 50/50 as you can possibly get, I’m not exaggerating,” Silver wrote in his latest newsletter.

But FiveThirtyEight cautioned that even though the polls are close, that doesn’t necessarily mean the overall result will be close.

“A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the result will be close,” the pollsters wrote on their website.

Since 1998, polls in US presidential, House, Senate and gubernatorial races have typically missed the final vote margin by about 6 points on average, according to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis.

For example, polls in 2020 showed President Joe Biden with a strong lead over then-President Trump. Right before the election, Biden led by 8.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average. He ultimately won the popular vote by less than 4.5 points — just enough for an Electoral College victory.

Similarly, in 2016 FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, but she ultimately lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.

Scott Keeter, senior fellow at the Pew Research Center, told Newsweek this week that polls in 2020 and 2016 were inaccurate because Trump supporters opt out of surveys because of distrust of institutions like the mainstream media and polling organizations.

But in the 2022 midterms, polling errors averaged just 4.8 points, marking the most accurate cycle in 25 years. If this cycle polls miss by a similar margin, the resulting effect could be decisive.

For example, if polls underestimate Harris by 4.8 points in the seven key swing states, she would win each of them and collect 319 electoral votes to Trump’s 219. Conversely, if polls underestimate Trump by the same amount, he would sweep the battleground states and secure 312 electoral votes.

Experts believe polls will be more accurate this year as adjustments now better account for likely Trump supporters who were previously underrepresented in polls.

“Many pollsters today are using past polling (history) to correct for the Trump undercount,” Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos polling, previously said. Newsweek.