NFL Week 17 Roundtable: Who Will Win Chiefs-Steelers? Does the Seahawks’ success hinge on the playoffs?

The NFL gave fans a gift this Christmas: Two games to watch on Wednesday, both with AFC playoff implications. The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 1 p.m. kickoff, then the Houston Texans host the Baltimore Ravens at 4:30 p.m. ET.

NFL Week 17 continues with a “Thursday Night Football” game in Chicago between the Bears and Seattle Seahawks, followed by a tripleheader on Saturday: Chargers at Patriots (1 p.m. ET), Broncos at Bengals (4:30 p.m.) and Cardinals at Rams (8:10 p.m. ET).

Athletics NFL writers Jeff Howe, Zak Keefer and Mike Sando answered five questions about the teams participating in these games.

---

The Chiefs visit the Steelers in a Christmas Day matchup between two of the AFC’s top teams. Who do you like in this game and why?

Keefer: It’s completely foolish to bet against the Chiefs this time of year, no matter what logic tells you. Patrick Mahomes has been hurt. The offensive line has been spotty. The Chiefs haven’t actually looked dangerous all season. And yet their record is a staggering 14-1. How? It’s hard to explain, other than the championship prowess they’ve built over the years and some random late-game breaks. However, the Steelers are at home and playing to keep up with the Ravens in the AFC North. I expect another close one where the Chiefs scrape out a close win.

Howe: Mike Tomlin always seems to have the Steelers ready when they are getting counted out, so I expect this game to be close, along with the fact that the Chiefs only play close games. I also expect TJ Watt to be a nightmare for the Chiefs’ tackles, who have struggled far too much this season. But as much as I can see a perfectly logical formula for a Steelers win, I’m not picking against the Chiefs.

Sando: I’m taking the Chiefs because I don’t think the Steelers are dynamic or consistent enough offensively.o draw a close game against a team as efficient as Kansas City. George Pickens’ availability changes the equation for the Steelers. I’ll still take KC, but give Pittsburgh a better shot now.

The Texans are 2-2 in their last four games. That span includes a loss to the Titans and a 3-point win over the Jaguars, two of the NFL’s worst teams. Now they face the 10-5 Ravens. What needs to change for Houston to beat Baltimore and have a long playoff run in January?

Keefer: The injuries are piling up and for the most part this has been a mediocre team for the majority of the back half of the season. At this point, the Texans are merely the best in a bad division and not a true AFC contender — as most around the league thought they would be at the start of the season. Losing the Tank Dell hurts tremendously, especially with Stefon Diggs’ absence. Baltimore is the far more complete team and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens win by double digits even at NRG Stadium.

Sando: I don’t think a deep playoff run is realistic for the Texans, even if they have a statistically top-five defense. The offense should take a huge leap in a short amount of time. It’s just not going to happen after losing another receiver. I’m interested to see what the Texans think they need to do to regain the offensive momentum they had in CJ Stroud’s rookie season.

Howe: The Texans need to do a better job of protecting Stroud. The offensive line has been a vulnerable spot all season, affecting Stroud’s accuracy and decision-making. However, they are likely too injured to make the playoffs. Oddly enough, losing to the Ravens might help the Texans because it would increase their chances of playing the Steelers in the wild card round. I’m not saying they want to play the Steelers, but they might be the preferred option over the Ravens.

The Seahawks said goodbye to Pete Carroll in January after three final seasons of mediocrity. Under Mike Macdonald, they are 8-7 with a 13 percent chance of making the playoffs, per Athletics‘s model. Do they have to make the postseason for this season to be a success?

Sando: The season is a success if Seattle’s defense improves significantly (it went from 27th last season to ninth this season in EPA per game), if the defense looks to be on track for the future (it does), and if team’s record won’t get worse (TBD). In his first season, Macdonald has reversed a 10-year slide in defence. Looks like he’s solved that problem. His next challenge will be to implement a more balanced, physical attack.

Howe: There’s enough evidence to believe that Macdonald is the right coach for the job, so that’s a big win right there. It would be a disappointment to miss the playoffs, especially as they wonder what could have been with some of their injuries. They should finish with a winning record for the third straight season, so that’s a plus. If they miss the playoffs, they’ll certainly rue the loss to the Giants, but the other losses came to the Lions, 49ers, Bills, Rams, Packers and Vikings, showing they’re not at the high-end level yet. Geno Smith has had a solid year, but he has thrown four interceptions in the end zone, including a pick-six in the overtime loss to the Rams, plus another that was picked off at the 2-yard line. Not surprisingly, they went 1-4 in those games. They are close, but not quite there.

Keefer: No. Missing the postseason — especially for a Rams team that was 1-4 at one point — would certainly be disappointing, but I still think Macdonald planted the right seeds for the franchise. It was clear that Seattle needed to turn the page after the Carroll era. The next challenge will be deciding how much longer it will last with Geno Smith at quarterback. As competitive as the Seahawks have been, mediocrity can be maddening. They were 9-8 each of the last two years. They could easily be that again.

The Chargers and Broncos both play Saturday afternoon with an opportunity to wrap up the AFC’s final two playoff spots. Which team would you least like to face in the postseason and why?

Howe: They are both capable of playing good defense and have tough identities, but the Chargers have the better quarterback. And if the seeds stay intact, the Broncos will have to visit Buffalo, and I’m not picking the Bills to upset anyone in the opening round. The only way to get through the AFC is with elite quarterback play, and the Chargers have a better chance of that happening with Justin Herbert.

Keefer: The Chargers are the better team and the way Jim Harbaugh has Herbert playing, I wouldn’t want to host the Chargers in the wild card round. If it ends up being Pittsburgh — which is in a battle with Baltimore for the AFC North crown — it wouldn’t surprise me if Harbaugh’s team walked into Heinz Field and won.

Sando: I’d rather not face the Chargers because Herbert can make spectacular plays on his own like he did to beat the Broncos last week. But I don’t see much difference in these teams in general. Denver could also present a challenge.

The Rams are in the driver’s seat to win the NFC West and return to the playoffs for the sixth time in Sean McVay’s eight seasons as coach. What has impressed you most about this year’s team?

Keefer: I spent some time with the Rams in training camp and it was overwhelming to me how many new faces were on the roster – this team has had about as much turnover as any in the league over the past few years. Then came a rash of injuries and a 1-4 start. “Dive right into the preparation,” McVay kept telling his assistants. “And don’t be afraid to get your heart broken.” What has impressed me the most is how McVay has found different ways to not only reach his players, but also his staff — which, like his roster, suffers from turnover every year. Chris Shula has settled into the defensive coordinator role: Outside of a rough day against the Bills — understandably the way Josh Allen and that unit are playing — the Rams have allowed 15 points or less in three of their last four games.

Howe: Matthew Stafford has played at an extremely high level for much of this 8-2 stretch, but their defensive improvements have been the reason for the turnaround. The Rams have allowed at least 24 points in their first five games, but just twice in their last 10. I’m concerned about the offensive line and the Rams’ chances of coming through, regardless of which NFC North opponent they likely draw in the first round. but this is another impressive coaching job by McVay.

Sando: They have committed to a physical style of football on both sides of the ball. They have done this through personnel acquisition, schematic change and through McVay’s play calling. The Rams look like they have a clear vision for what they want to be and are implementing it in a unified way.

(Top photo of Russell Wilson and the Steelers: Rob Carr/Getty Images)