Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

On By Littum

Set your Week 16 fantasy football lineup with Dalton Del Don’s top start/sit advice for every game on the board.

Subscribe to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Thompson-Robinson starter is bad news for Jerry Jeudybut Ford is a sneaky play if you need a RB this week. He saw 84% of the snaps and every RB opportunity after Nick Chubb went down with a broken foot last week, and the Bengals have surrendered the most schedule adjusted fantasy points at running backs over the past five weeks. Pierre Strong and D’Onta Foreman could also see work, but the Browns should switch to going hard with DTR.

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons

Nabers surpassed a 40% field goal percentage last week for the fourth time this season, while no other wideout has done it more than twice. It also marked Nabers’ eighth game he has seen a target share of 40%+ first reading. Nabers’ role expanded last week, as he saw season highlights on routestargets, catches, yards and TDs from the slot where he absolutely dominated in college. The Falcons have been outscored for the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the past five weeks (and they’re about to face Desmond Ridder), so Nabers gets a favorable (and fast-paced) matchup indoors Sunday (even with AJ Terrell shadowing him).

The Drew Lock is an upgrade over Tommy DeVito’s low aDOT/high sack combo. Nabers has a target share of 28.4% during two games with Lock this season. The Giants have an implied 16.75 point team, so Nabers’ ceiling is likely limited. But he’s still a top-20 WR this week.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Thielen led Carolina in routes run despite Jalen Coker’s return last week, seeing 67% of his snaps in the slot. Xavier Legette is out this week and Coker could be hampered as he is expected to play through a quad injuryso Thielen should be extra busy on Sunday. The Cardinals have shut down outside receivers, but have fought to defend the placewhere they have allowed the second highest goal rate (51%) this season. Thielen also ranks top 25 in fantasy points per. run route against zone coverage that Arizona has used at the league’s 10th highest rate.

This embedded content is not available in your region.

Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Goff is a safer starter when he’s at home (and indoors), but he’s posted a 9.0 YPA on the road this season. He has a 10:1 TD:INT ratio over the last three games, and Goff could continue to pass more with David Montgomery out and several injuries to Detroit’s defense. The Lions have a healthy 27.5-point implied team total and the Bears’ pass defense has sunk from first in EPA/dropback allowed Weeks 1-8 down to 27. since then.

Sit Caleb Williamsthat ranks last among 34 qualified quarterbacks in YPA (4.9!) against man coverage this season, which the Lions have used at the league’s highest rate (42.3%).

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Richardson has averaged nine rushing attempts over four games since returning as the starter, including four carries inside those five. AR continues to struggle with accuracy issues, but no quarterback throws deeper downfield, and he has been exposed to the highest pressure % in the league since retaking the starting job in Week 11; Richardson ranks first in Big Time Throw % (9.3) when kept clean above that span. Injuries have plagued a Tennessee secondary that ranks 28th in EPA/dropback allowed since Week 10. The Titans’ opponents have the fourth-highest pass rate above expectations during the last month. The Colts are expected to score 23 points this week, so Richardson has the upside.

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets

Start: Cooper Kupp & Matthew Stafford

Kupp has taken a free back seat to Puka Nacua, coming off a goose egg during the first week of the fantasy playoffs. In Kupp’s defense, both teams struggled badly passing during a rain-soaked game that combined for zero touchdowns, but he is now WR57 over the past three weeks.

Kupp is clearly not the same player he once was, and Nacua has proven to be a true no. 1but he will have a good fight to come back this week. The Jets have allowed the third-most schedule adjusted fantasy points at wide receivers over the past five weeks, and New York ranks 29th in EPA/dropback allowed since week 9. Also, New York has waived the most fantasy points to castlewhere Kupp has run 62% of his routes this season.

Stafford had a 10:0 TD:INT ratio over his previous four games before last week’s rain-soaked blowout that totaled just 18 points. The Rams have a 24.75 point implied team, and a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers could make it a shootout Sunday. The Jets are a pass-funnel defense that has shut down the run but given up the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the last five weeks. New York ranks last in defensive EPA since the sacking of Robert Saleh (they were in fifth place before). The Jets’ opponents also have the third-highest pass rate above expectations during the last month. Stafford is a top-12 QB this week.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

Robinson is RB18 in “expert consensus ranks” this week, so you may not have better alternatives. But Robinson’s expectations must be lowered against an Eagles defense allowing it the lowest EPA/rush since Week 9. Philadelphia hasn’t allowed a running back to rush for 100 yards this season, and the Eagles have surrendered the fewest rush schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the past five weeks. Robinson’s role remains strong (and he’s always a threat to score a couple of goal-line TDs), but he’s averaged just 38.7 rushing yards in losses this year, and the Commanders are 4-point underdogs Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

Metcalf saw the fewest goals (three) in a game he did not leave injured since his rookie season last week, but he gets a good place to come back on Sunday. Geno Smith (and Metcalf) returned to a full practice this week, as Metcalf would otherwise have been a bench candidate with Sam Howell starting. Metcalf leads Seattle in field goal rate (19.2%) versus zone coverage this season, which Minnesota has used at the league’s fifth-highest rate (77.0%). The Vikings have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to outside receivers this season, but they have relented. the second smallest NOGEN/A (5.1) to the slot since Week 8 (where Jaxon Smith-Njigba has run 86% of his routes this year).

Vikings opponents have the league’s highest pass percentage (64%) and have averaged the most pass attempts (37.9) this season. Metcalf is due to touchdown regression (and more goals!) and should remain in fantasy lineups this week.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Stevenson has averaged 16.8 fantasy points (would be RB5 this season) in wins, but just 9.9 (RB31) in losses this year. The Patriots are huge 14-point underdogs this week, with a 16.25-point team underdog. The Bills have been far less vulnerable to fantasy backs over the past five weeks, and this matchup will likely be slow pace. Look for alternatives to Stevenson this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders

Meyers has seen the second-most targets (45) and yards (447) in the league over the past month — and that was with Desmond Ridder starting last week. Aidan O’Connell’s return is a boost for Meyers. The Jaguars have given up the third most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and this matchup should be quick. Meyers’ field goal rate has risen to 25.5% in man coverage this season, which Jacksonville has used at. the league’s fourth-highest rate (38.2%).

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins

Jennings is coming off a quiet fantasy performance, but he saw a 29% field goal rate and suffered through a game where the weather greatly affected the passing game. The 49ers are down to theirs No. 5 drive back this season with Isaac Guerendo injured, allowing San Francisco to pass more than usual. Jennings owns a 35.5% first read share since Brandon Aiyuk went down (Week 7) and is fifth in yards per route driving (2.64) this season. Jennings is a top-15 WR this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

Mayfield has enjoyed a healthy Mike Evans while throwing for seven touchdowns over the past two weeks. He should keep it going Sunday night against an injury-riddled Dallas defense (albeit one that has performed much better with Micah Parsons, which will probably play through a stomach bug). The Cowboys have allowed most fantasy points per dropback this season, and the Buccaneers have one of the highest implied team totals (26 points) this week.

Cooper Rush is a sleeper at QB this week as he gets a pass funnel The Tampa Bay defense blowing hard.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

Miller has impressed under limited work this season, and he was slated to lead New Orleans’ backfield Monday night with Alvin Kamara out. But he has a tough setup on a completely depleted Saints team with one of this season’s lowest projected totals (14.25 points) this week. Spencer Rattler starts at QB and New Orleans’ top two WRs could be Kevin Austin Jr. and Dante Pettis. The Saints are 14-point underdogs and the Packers haven’t let a running back rush for 75 yards since Week 8. Jamaal Williams figures to be more involved in a slow paced matchupso Miller is a Monday night fringe starter.