Sources – Falcons expected to cut Kirk Cousins ​​before $10M bonus due

Kirk Cousins’ divorce from the Falcons is expected to be finalized before his $10 million guard bonus expires on March 17, with executives throughout the NFL fully expecting Atlanta to release him before then.

The split between Cousins ​​and the Falcons is inevitable at this point, according to multiple sources.

Front office executives observing the situation have pointed out that because of the no-trade clause in Cousins’ contract, he now has all the leverage. And no one believes he will do any favors for a Falcons team that surprised him on draft night by selecting another quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., in the first round, then benched him this week in favor of the rookie.

Therefore, there is now a widespread expectation throughout the league that the Falcons will not be able to trade Cousins ​​and will have to release him before March 17, when his $10 million roster bonus for the 2026 season expires. There is no need for the Falcons to absorb more costs for a quarterback they paid $90 million for 14 games.

Therefore, in the second offseason, Cousins ​​is expected to become a free agent, able to choose the team and situation he believes will be best for him.

A Falcons official told ESPN Saturday morning that it was too early to determine whether the organization would release Cousins. The official added that Penix’s relatively low 2025 salary cap ($5.2 million) gives the Falcons the financial flexibility to potentially retain Cousins.

But the expectation around the league remains that the Falcons will release Cousins ​​before the roster bonus expires.

The Denver Broncos were in a similar situation last offseason when Russell Wilson was eventually released before his $37 million salary for the 2025 season was fully guaranteed. Wilson’s guarantee expired on March 17, 2024, exactly one year before Cousins’ roster bonus with the Falcons expires.

Wilson signed a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers worth the veterans’ minimum of $1.2 million — matching the type of contract offers the 36-year-old Cousins ​​would field from other teams if he chooses to play in 2025. Any salary Cousins earnings in 2025 would be offset by the $27.5 million the Falcons owed him, making him a potential bargain opportunity next season.

If the situation in Atlanta had been handled differently, in the eyes of executives across the league, the Falcons might have had a chance to work with Cousins ​​to facilitate a trade to another team. However, given the history that has unfolded in recent months, that is not expected to be the case.

Cousins ​​was not informed the Falcons would draft a quarterback until they called the four-time Pro Bowler as they lined up their first-round pick in April.

This caused frustration and confusion from the Cousins ​​camp, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported on draft night, because Atlanta did not use the eighth overall pick on a player to back Cousins ​​and make the team better; instead, the Falcons selected a player to eventually take over for Cousins.

“He got the clock rung, obviously because of the sensitive time with the questions about what you were up to,” Falcons coach Raheem Morris said in April. “It’s never the right time to talk to a quarterback about those things, and the reactions are always going to be private when it comes to those things, unless Kirk decides to tell you some of those things, whatever they may be be.

“But he’s a competitor, like all of us. And you can always expect those things to go exactly the way you think.”

The Falcons announced Tuesday that Penix was their starting quarterback “moving forward” with three games left this season, benching Cousins ​​just months after he signed a four-year, $180 million contract that included a $100 million guaranteed.

The Falcons might try to see if there’s a way to trade Cousins, but need his cooperation, and no one across the league expects them to get it, meaning it’s only a matter of time before Atlanta has no other choice but to release him.

What also makes the move interesting is the perceived lack of quality quarterbacks available this offseason. Next year’s draft isn’t considered as good or deep at the quarterback position as this year’s, and the free agent quarterback class is currently slated to include Sam Darnold, Wilson and eventually Cousins.

Teams expected to be in the quarterback market this offseason include the Steelers, Jets, Giants, Raiders, Saints, Browns and Titans. As usual, there are not enough quarterbacks for everyone.

Morris said Wednesday that the biggest factor in benching Cousins ​​was his turnover. Cousins ​​has a league-leading 16 interceptions, and his 12 fumbles are tied in the NFL with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield.

“There’s a standard that I have for myself, that the team has for me, that unfortunately I didn’t play up to that standard consistently enough,” Cousins ​​said Wednesday in his first comments since being benched. “And so, it is what it is, and you roll with it, and now you’re still getting ready — kind of ‘one play away’ — and supporting Mike and just trying to help our team find a way to win the last three to make the playoffs and that’s what it’s all about.”

The Falcons (7-7) are second in the NFC South but own the tiebreaker over the first-place Buccaneers (8-6) and have a 20% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.

Atlanta hosts the struggling Giants (2-12) on Sunday, where Penix will make his first career start.

Cousins ​​said Wednesday that despite coming back from a torn Achilles in 2023, he is not injured. As far as this season goes, he said he’ll deal with it when the time comes.

“I didn’t forget how to play quarterback,” he said. “Of course the turnover was not what you want, but I did not forget how to play.”

ESPN’s Marc Raimondi contributed to this report.