Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? Snow is likely in these US states, according to NOAA climate data

On December 21, 2024By Littum

The holiday countdown is on, and if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, NOAA has a list of the places most likely to have one.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published a report this month, using climate data to show where snow is most likely to fall on the ground on Christmas Day.

The data consists of averages from the past three decades of different types of observations. This includes both the monthly and daily normals for precipitation, temperature, snowfall, warming and cooling degree days, growing degree days, and frost and frost dates spanning close to 15,000 different observation sites. Most of them are owned and operated by NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS).

So what constitutes a “white Christmas”? According to NOAA, there should be at least an inch (0.03 meter) of snow on the ground by December 25th. On the map below, the information comes from US Climate Normals from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The different colors represent the probability, according to measurements taken between 1991 and 2020 across the United States on Christmas Day, of which regions may have the best and worst chance of a white Christmas. Unfortunately, if your location falls in an area shaded in dark gray, you may have to go to typically colder locations, as the probability is less than 10%. The best scenario for snow on the ground on Christmas Day would be in an area highlighted in white where the probability exceeds 90%.

gray map of the United States with shading from blue to white on the northern half to indicate snowfall

(Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

But just because the historical data inspires confidence in which places on earth will have snow, it’s all going to come down to what Mother Nature has in store this year and leading up to Christmas Day.

If there is a huge snowstorm the day before Christmas, places that might not typically have snow on the ground can experience a Christmas morning with the grass covered in white. For example, in 2009, a cold blast into North Texas brought an accumulation of snow just before the holidays. It remained on earth until Christmas Day, which was the first for the region since 1926. And in 2023, Portland, Maine, had a wet and not white Christmas with warm air across the region, forbidding the more likely chances of becoming a winter wonderland.

May the magical odds of the holiday spirit ever be in your favor this year so that your dreams of a white Christmas may come true!