Chances of White Christmas in NJ this year? Here are the odds.

If you’re hoping to wake up on Christmas morning and see a white coating of snow on the ground, New Jersey is not the ideal place to be.

Based on historical averages, New Jersey’s northwestern counties with higher terrain — such as Sussex, Warren, Morris and Passaic — have a 20-40% chance of getting a white Christmas in any given year. The odds are worse in other parts of the state.

Most central and eastern counties only have a 10% to 20% chance, and most parts of South Jersey only have a 5% to 10% chance.

Our neighbors in New York City have a 13% probability, and people in Philadelphia have a 9% chance of a white Christmas in any given year.

These odds are based on snowfall and temperature statistics compiled by National Weather Service over the past 30 years.

Of course, weather patterns can change from week to week, so it’s difficult to predict snow on a specific day in the future.

Right now, forecasters say New Jersey has a better chance of seeing a light coating of snow on the ground Friday night and early Saturday than Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.

Forecasters expect a rapid development rock plant from the west to brush the Garden State on Friday, and the system could interact with an offshore storm Friday night, bringing a mix of rain and light snow to most of our region.

The National Weather Service says the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey could get 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation Saturday morning, with some pockets of 3 inches possible.

Only a dusting to 1 inch of snow is expected in central and southern New Jersey, where slightly warmer temperatures will keep precipitation as mostly rain and then change to snow Friday night when temperatures drop near or below freezing.

Much colder air will make its way through New Jersey this weekend, with afternoon highs stuck in the low 30s on Saturday and possibly as cold as the mid to upper 20s on Sunday and near 30 degrees on Monday before climbing back to mid-30s Tuesday.

Both the National Weather Service and AccuWeather calling for mostly cloudy skies Tuesday and Wednesday Christmas Day.

AccuWeather says there is a slight chance of ice overnight Christmas Eve in northern and central New Jersey, and a 25% to 30% chance of a rain or snow shower Christmas morning.

Right now, no snow accumulation is expected.

In case you’re wondering, we don’t need a major snowstorm to qualify as a white Christmas. The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having only 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25 — either new snow or lingering snow from a previous storm.

If you want to check the historical odds of seeing a white Christmas in your area of ​​the country, check this out interactive map created by NOAA and click on your region.

Current weather radar