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Lightweights

Joel Alvarez (21-3, 6-2 UFC) vs. Drakkar Klose (15-2-1, 9-2 UFC)

ODDS: Alvarez (-395), Klose (+310)

Two underrated lightweights go at it for what could sneakily be the best matched fight on the card. Alvarez has been a clear overachiever since his UFC debut in 2019, as “El Fenomeno” didn’t have very high expectations after riding through a lackluster level of competition in his native Spain. That thought was only further reinforced by a flat UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov, but it turned out that Ismagulov was one of the few opponents who could handle Alvarez’s game. A gigantic lightweight at 6-foot-3, Alvarez blends a potent striking game with an aggressive grappling skill set that typically forces opponents to handle one or the other while constantly avoiding danger. Ismagulov had the practiced jab to neutralize the Spaniard from range and make the ground game a non-factor, but so far Alvarez’s only other loss in the UFC has come to Arman Tsarukyan, who went the complete opposite route and was able to cut through . his defense on the mat. Aside from those two fights, against an elite specialist and one of the best lightweights in the world, respectively, opponents have just had no idea how to effectively approach Alvarez. Aggressive opponents have found themselves getting into the teeth of Alvarez’s venomous fighting, while more patient foes have just given him the initiative to mount effective offense on the feet. It should be a tough puzzle for Klose to crack, but given his status as one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, he might just pull it off.

Klose came to the UFC in 2017 and also had some hype, but a win over Marc Diakiese quickly established him as a potential prospect killer, even if his clinch-heavy approach wasn’t always exciting. Klose eventually rounded out his game that he looked to be racing toward contender status in 2020, and his matchup against Beneil Dariush was a big spot that ended up being memorable, at the very least. But a lot of that was due to Dariush’s amazing fierce comeback that resulted in Klose eating a knockout loss. Klose then had a rough few years and lost whatever momentum he had left. Jeremy Stephens pushed him during a promotional weigh-in and shelved him with whiplash, and while Klose looked solid in a couple of return games, he then missed another year with injury. Klose announced himself in a big way in his last comeback, ending 2023 with a particularly brutal slam knockout of Joe Solecki, and he had another solid win over Joaquim Silva in May to quietly put together his fourth win in a row. Klose may just have the right combination of skill and strength to neutralize the constant danger the Bandog Fight Club representative brings over three rounds, but Alvarez’s approach still appears to be a winning formula. If nothing else, he should be able to make Klose work for every bit of control. Klose has also been tired in some of his tougher games, which could be a death blow down the stretch. The choice is Alvarez via submission in the third round.

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