Lions vs 49ers: 3 key games in a final regular season rematch

When this rematch from last year NFC Championship between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers was announced in the offseason, it appeared to have playoff implications. While the Lions are surpassing most preseason expectations at 13-2, the results of Monday Night Football will have little or no bearing on their playoff fate — that will have to wait until Week 18 Sunday Night Football against the Minnesota Vikings. On the other end, the 49ers are already eliminated from the postseason, so they also have little to play for beyond pride.

Despite the lack of playoff ramifications, coach Dan Campbell already told the media last Monday that “we’re bringing everything we’ve got into this game,” so the expectation is that the Lions will be out of their cage looking after tearing apart the gold rushes at Levi’s Stadium. Additionally, Amon-Ra St. Brown also, after the Bears game, that he wanted the win (against the 49ers) and that last season’s NFC Championship Game was up there with the worst loss of his football career. So expect the Lions players and coaches to be out for revenge just as they were against Dallas Cowboys in week 6.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats were made available via NFL Pro or FTN Fantasy.

Purdy passive passes

The 49ers, while not as injury-prone as the Lions, have been one of the most injury-plagued teams in the NFL this season. One of the most impactful injuries they suffered was wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (a player burned into the memories of Lions fans for all the wrong reasons). Since Week 8, Aiyuk was injured in Week 7, Purdy has had some deficiencies in throwing past the sticks. Aiyuk was the offense’s best ball-winner downfield, and they’ve lacked their ability to stretch the field since then.

In that span, on passes of 15+ air yards, Purdy has attempted just 4.7 pass attempts/game, which is 32nd (out of 42 qualifying quarterbacks) as he has been hesitant to pull the trigger. Below is a list of several others of Purdy’s 15+ yard passing metrics (since Week 8):

• 45.5% completion rate (17th)
• 1 passing touchdown (tied 26th)
• 15 passed 1st downs (tied 23rd)
• 89.3 passer rating (19th)
• 45.5% success rate (19th)
• 0.42 EPA/dropback (20th)
• 59.0% DVOA (19th)

Purdy has turned into barely a top-20 quarterback on the border as he tries to stretch the field without Aiyuk, and that should play into the Lions’ hands.

The Lions defense has been admirable against passes of 15+ yards. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s unit has allowed a 39.5% completion percentage (11th), a 39.5% success rate (10th), has 24 pass break-ups (9th) and a 0.27 EPA/dropback allowed (14th). They’ve been even better when it comes to such passes in the end zone, allowing just one touchdown and forcing three interceptions on 11 such attempts.

Adding to the equation of the 49ers possibly not being able to stretch the Lions defense is the fact that, due to a slew of injuries, the 49ers could very well tap into their third- and fourth-string offensive linemen at left tackle and left. guard, while their right tackle is listed as questionable.

Purdy has been inactive throwing anything but short passes, the Lions have defended longer passes well, and the 49ers’ offensive line may only allow for a quick and short passing game, which hopefully means the lack of a deep passing threat will allow for Lions defense to play heavy to stop the run.

Glenn’s Blitzkrieg Bop

Even without Aiyuk, Purdy has been productive when facing the blitz. Since Week 8 against the blitz, Purdy has a 67.7% completion percentage (9th), 8.4 passing yards/attempt (10th), five passing touchdowns (7th), a 112.7 passer rating (9th), a success rate of 60.0% (2nd) and a 0.21 EPA/dropback (10th). Purdy has managed to handle the blitz well, with crucial decision-making, even in a down year for the Niners offense.

Although Purdy has had success against the blitz this year, the Lions will still rely on getting after the quarterback by bringing additional bodies for a few reasons.

As previously mentioned, the 49ers’ offensive line depth has been tested with injuries, and what better way to test their chemistry than by attacking inexperienced and unknown players? The Niners could be starters like Charlie Heck (signed off Arizona’s practice squad Thursday), Nick Zakelj (34 career snaps) and Sebastian Gutierrez (3 career snaps). Not only can these inexperienced offensive linemen potentially be responsible for protecting Purdy, but so will their rookie running back Isaac Guerendo and fifth-string running back Patrick Taylor, who are replacement-level in pass protection. That’s too many cogs working on the same side not to lead to communication problems.

The Lions’ defense since Week 7, following Aidan Hutchinson’s Week 6 injury, has blitzed the Lions to 141 dropbacks or 12.4 dropbacks/game (both 4th most in this span). In that span, the Lions defense has allowed a 52.4% completion percentage (5th), 6.8 passing yards/play (10th), just a 39.5% completion rate and -0.18 EPA/dropback (4th). However, they are bottom five in the NFL in punt rate (30.5%) in that span.

The Lions, even without Hutchinson and without consistently getting to the quarterback, have been one of the best defenses when blitzing and will look to do so, selectively, against the rookie 49ers’ pass protectors and Purdy.

Off tackle

One area the Lions utilized well in the NFC Championship Game last season was running off the tackles. This season, the 49ers defense has been one of the worst at limiting and stopping outside runs. They struggled with it down the stretch last year, but are even worse this year given a combination of scheme regression and talent reduction on their defensive line.

49ers run defense, against outside runs, has allowed a +0.16 EPA/rush (32nd), 5.6 yards/rush (29th), +0.92 rushing yards above expectation/attempt (27th), 46.8 success rate (30th) , 2.02 yards before contact/attempt (26th), and 3.55 yards after contact/attempt (t-27th). They have developed into one of the most susceptible run defenses off the tackle in the entire league.

Meanwhile, just as he had success running off the backs of Penei Sewell, Taylor Decker, and the tight ends in the NFC Championship Game, Jahmyr Gibbs has had success this season and should continue to do so against the 49ers. Against outside runs, Gibbs has generated seven rushing touchdowns (t-3rd), 5.3 yards/rush (6th), a +0.04 EPA/rushing attempt, a 43.6% success rate (8th), 19 10+ yard runs (6 .), and 45 runs at 15+ miles/hour (6th).

Gibbs has been one of the best running backs in football this season, and that includes running outside, so look for the Lions, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, to scheme the run of the tackle to crush the 49ers en route to a convincing victory.