Updated odds to reach the playoffs

On By Littum

game

Affect and effect. To also and two. There, their and they are. NFL and tiebreakers.

With just two weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, tiebreakers are on the minds of many. This time of year is filled with countless playoff and clinch scenarios. Some are simple and others are like trying to build that toy with vague instructions on Christmas Eve.

One scenario worth watching is the NFC West division title. Seattle takes the field against the Chicago Bears on “Thursday Night Football” with plenty on the line. The Seahawks once controlled their own destiny, but now the Rams can chart their course.

Here’s a look at the Seahawks playoff picture and how they can make their postseason dreams a reality.

Seahawks playoff odds

The Seahawks, who can only get into the postseason by winning the NFC West, are +500 to make the playoffs, according to BetMGM. That gives Seattle a 16.7% implied probability of playing more than the allotted 17-game schedule.

How can the Seahawks make the playoffs?

Thanks to two straight losses, the Seahawks no longer control their destiny. Now they need help to reach the wild card weekend.

With a Week 18 matchup vs Aries approaching, the Seahawks’ easiest path to the postseason is for their LA counterparts to lose in Week 17. A loss Saturday to the Rams would open the door to a win-and-in scenario for both teams and set up a battle for the NFC West crown in the final week of the regular season.

The Seahawks can be eliminated with a loss or tie against Bears on “Thursday Night Football” and a Rams win Saturday.

But a Rams loss on Saturday is where things get funky and would render the Seahawks’ Week 17 game score meaningless. They are set to host Cardinalswhich is eliminated from the playoffs. Arizona won Week 2 matchup in blowout fashion, 41-10. A lot has changed since then, but the Rams aren’t guaranteed a win, especially over a division foe.

That loss would mean the Week 18 matchup between LA and Seattle would be for the NFC West division crown. In that scenario, Seattle would get in thanks to owning the better NFC West record.

If both teams won, Seattle could still cling to their playoff dreams if they get some luck from the out-of-town scoreboard. At that point, the power of victory tiebreaker comes into play. The Rams have the advantage there now and can clinch that tiebreaker this week with positive results in 3.5-of-6 games.

The Rams would own that tiebreaker by 3.5 or more wins Vikings (vs. Packers), Bills (vs. Jets), 49ers (vs. Lions), Commanders (vs. Falcon), The Bengals (vs. Broncos) and Brown (vs. Dolphins).

If both the Rams and Seahawks win, Seattle would be looking for at least four wins from the group that includes the Packers, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Broncos and Dolphins to stay afloat heading into Week 18.

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Seahawks remaining schedule

The Seahawks find themselves with a fairly light schedule over the last two weeks, and are ranked No. 21 of the league’s toughest schedule, according to Tankathon. Seattle’s opponents check in with a combined .433 winning percentage.

However, the Seahawks will not be in the friendly confines of Lumen Field to close out the regular season. While that would have been a concern in the past, Seattle is just 3-6 at home. Compared to their 5-1 record on the road, these Seahawks are comfortable living out of a suitcase, something they will get used to over the next two weeks.

Below is a full look at Seattle’s schedule:

NFC West standings

The Seahawks’ only path to the postseason is to win the NFC West. The wild card is out of reach, so the path is narrow but fairly simple heading into their Week 17 game. It’s been a messy mess between the four NFC West teams all season, and now only two teams remain with two games remaining.

Below is a complete look at the NFC West standings entering Week 17:

  1. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
  2. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
  3. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
  4. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)

NFL playoff picture week 17

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, earned AFC No. 1 seed, AFC West leaders)
  2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East leaders)
  3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)
  4. Houston Texas (9-7, AFC South leaders)
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, wild card No. 2)
  7. Denver Broncos (9-6, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8), Cincinnati Bengals (7-8).

NFC

  1. Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)
  3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6, NFC West leaders)
  4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
  5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)
  6. Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
  7. Washington’s commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), Seattle Seahawks (8-7)