Rams near NFC West title, Bengals alive

On December 29, 2024By Littum

Each week during the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture — typically starting after late Sunday afternoon games and then moving forward the rest of the week (to Monday and Thursday’s games, or Saturdays if it is relevant.)

What just happened? What does that mean? What are the relevant factors (and perhaps tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? Everything will be explained and analyzed until the time the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, January 5th.

Here’s where things stand with Week 17 of the 2024 season underway:

NFC playoff picture

x – 1. Detroit Lions (13-2), NFC North leaders: Last week, they were in a three-way tie atop the conference and tied for the division lead with Minnesota. But Philadelphia’s loss in Week 16 makes it increasingly likely that the Lions and Vikings will play for the all-important regular-season bowl in Week 18. Winning gives the Lions everything they want, including home-court advantage. So would a win in San Francisco on Monday night combined with a Minnesota loss to Green Bay. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Vikings

x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), NFC East leaders: In Week 16, they snapped their 10-game winning streak, an opportunity to wrap up the division, and fell one game behind Detroit and Minnesota in the race for home-court advantage. Also, concussion QB Jalen Hurts will not play this Sunday. But the Eagles are still just one win or Commanders loss from locking up the division and at least the No. the 2 seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys vs. Giants

3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6), NFC West leaders: Saturday night’s escape from Arizona could mean a division title if the strength-of-victory tiebreaker unfolds LA’s way on Sunday. “Honestly, I have no idea,” WR Puka Nacua said of the clinching scenario when asked on NFL Network after the triumph. “They said we had a game at SoFi Stadium on Saturday night, so that’s what I showed up for.” Other than that, there’s a Week 18 meeting against Seattle that could still decide matters. Neither the Rams nor the Seahawks have a path to a wild-card berth. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks

4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7), NFC South leaders: Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. won his starting debut against the lowly Giants. But the real payoff came when the Bucs — they were swept earlier in the season by Atlanta — lost at Dallas in Week 16. The Falcons can clinch the division this Sunday with another win and another loss in Tampa Bay. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Panthers

x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2), wild card no. 1: Like Detroit, they control their own potentially high-performing destiny—win out, and the NFC North and No. The 1 seed is Minnesota’s. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions

x – 6. Green Bay Packers (11-4), wild card no. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and already losing once to Minnesota relegated the Pack to wild-card status … although Monday’s whitewash of the Saints was the latest reminder that this might actually be the last NFC North team you want to see in January. But with the Packers guaranteed to open the playoffs on the road, it will be interesting to see how much they play their key starters over the next two weeks given the limited upside to doing so. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs Bears

7. Washington’s commanders (10-5), wild card no. 3: Despite beating the Eagles, they fell short of a postseason berth in Week 16 – but stayed alive in the NFC East. A win in Week 17 gets Washington going. A loss could be very problematic in the tiebreaker area, as it would open up an alternate path for the Bucs, who beat Washington in Week 1. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7), in the chase: If they and the Rams finish 10-7, which would require a Seahawks win in LA in Week 18, the undetermined strength-of-victory tiebreaker will prove crucial, likely in LA’s favor. But that’s assuming the Seahawks aren’t eliminated Sunday first after the Rams beat the Cardinals. Remaining schedule: at Rams

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), in the chase: The Bucs could see their hopes of keeping the NFC South throne die this weekend. But if Atlanta beats Washington, then Tampa Bay has a more favorable shot at the NFC’s final wild-card slot. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers vs. Saints

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AFC playoff picture

yz – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1), AFC West champions: By crushing Pittsburgh on Christmas, they secured home-field advantage and a first-round bye — and two-plus weeks off, really, depending on who they want to play in what is now a meaningless Week 18 contest for the champs. Remaining schedule: at Broncos, BYE

y – 2. Buffalo Bills (12-3), AFC East Champions: Now out of the running for no. 1 seed, finishing second in the conference should still matter, as the road to Super Bowl 59 could go through Western New York if the Chiefs lose their playoff opener. A win would also ensure that Buffalo would not have to go on the road for a playoff game unless the AFC Championship is held in Kansas City. Remaining schedule: vs Jets, at Patriots

x – 3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5), AFC North leaders: burn? Probably an understatement. The Steelers’ loss before Baltimore’s Christmas kickoff vaulted the Ravens atop the division, and their dominant win over Houston keeps them there. A win or draw in Week 18 ensures that. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns

y – 4. Houston Texas (9-7), AFC South champions: They reign in a weak division for the second year in a row, but Wednesday’s loss locked them into the fourth seed … which will likely mean a tough wild-card matchup, albeit in Houston, against an AFC North team. Remaining schedule: at the Titans

x – 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), wild card no. 1: That’s three losses in a row, Wednesday’s flat performance against KC cost them first place in the AFC North. However, they can capture the division title by winning in Week 18 if Baltimore also loses to Cleveland. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals

x – 6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6), wild card no. 2: Saturday’s sweep of the Patriots locked up the Bolts and ensures that Jim Harbaugh has been a playoff participant in four of his five NFL seasons as a head coach. Still, after losing to the Ravens and Steelers earlier this season, the Chargers will most likely be the sixth seed — and likely head to Baltimore or Pittsburgh for a rematch. Remaining schedule: at Raiders

7. Denver Broncos (9-7), wild card no. 3: They have had win-and-in scenarios in their last two games and lost both times. Still, another win — or a tie — would propel Denver to the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 with Peyton Manning and Von Miller nearly nine years ago. The Broncos’ Week 18 matchup against Kansas City means basically nothing to the Chiefs — which could be a real advantage for Denver, which can’t do better than the seventh seed. Remaining schedule: vs. chiefs

8. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), in the chase: Still alive thanks to a four-game winning streak, including Saturday’s overtime thriller against Denver. While they emerge as the best team outside of the postseason field, the Bengals still need the most help to get in, including at least one loss to both the Colts and Dolphins. Cincinnati also needs to beat Pittsburgh in Week 18 and hope Denver loses again. Although the Bengals jumped Indy and Miami on Saturday, both have tiebreakers that would move them past Cincinnati if they continue to win. Remaining schedule: at the Steelers

9. Indianapolis Colts (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after the win in Week 16 and with a soft schedule heading out. Their record in AFC games (6-5) is better than Miami’s (5-5) and Cincinnati’s (5-6). Indianapolis wins if it ends in a three- or four-way tie with teams that all have 9-8 records. A two-way tie with Denver would mean the Broncos advance by virtue of their Week 15 win over the Colts. Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Jaguars

10. Miami Dolphins (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after the win in Week 16 and with a soft schedule heading out. They advance if they tie with a combination of 9-8 teams that do not includes the Colts. Remaining schedule: at Browns, at Jets

NFL playoff scenarios for week 17

Detroit wins the NFC North and the NFC’s no. 1 seed (first round bye and home field advantage) with:

Win + Minnesota loss

Atlanta wins the NFC South with:

Win + Tampa Bay Loss

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with:

Win or draw
Washington loss or tie

The Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West with:

Must win strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Seattle on Sunday

(Note: The Rams secure the strength-of-win tiebreaker with 2½ or more wins from the following teams: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, San Francisco and Washington. A draw equals half a win in this formula.)

Washington wins the playoff spot with: