NFL Week 17 Betting Notebook: Saturday

I’ve put together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting section of PFF NFL Show each week and I have since expanded it to play-by-play betting notes for the full list of Sunday fixtures.

The idea is to put my research and thoughts down on paper in a quick-hitting bullet point format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully you are able to get the same value from this article as you work through your decision making process.

Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball, with an “angles I like” summary at the end that quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from a spread, totals and player props perspective.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (CHARGERS -4.5, 43.5 TOTAL)

• The Patriots have blitzed on 37% of their pass-defense snaps this season (sixth-highest rate in the NFL), but they’re still a bottom-five defense in pressure rate.
  • A team that often blitzes without creating pressure tends to be a good matchup for most quarterbacks, but that’s especially true for Justin Herbert, who has excelled both against the blitz and from the pocket.
    • Justin Herbert PFF passing grades | 2024 season
      • vs. Lightning: 83.1 (2nd)
      • From pure pocket: 92.0 (3rd)
  • The Chargers have continued to be a pass-heavy team since their early season bye. Assuming the game remains competitive, this is a good place to attack Herbert’s passes/altars.