Three factors behind the Capitals’ unexpected success

The Capitals, who were swept out of the first round by the New York Rangers, were thought to fall back into the standings this season. Instead, they have been the NHL’s biggest surprise. Washington entered the holiday break with the third-best hitting percentage in the league (.706).

Let’s look under the hood to find out what has inspired the Capitals’ unexpected success and what elements are sustainable:

Ovechkin’s pursuit of history

Alex Ovechkin burst out of the gate with 15 goals in his first 18 games, closing within 26 of Wayne Gretzky’s record. However, a broken left fibula forced Ovechkin to pause the pursuit last month. (Ovechkin could return Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs.)

Washington’s offense has dried up a bit without Ovechkin, who was shooting a career-high 23.8 percent at the time of his injury. The whole team came out and scored at least five goals in nine of its first 18 games.

Over the past 16 games, the drop-off has been most pronounced at 5-on-5, where the Capitals shoot 7.3 percent. That’s down from 14.8 percent over the first 18 games.

Washington’s power play works much differently without Ovechkin bombing one-timers from the left circle. Shot attempts have been more evenly distributed, and 56.4 percent have come from the square – up from 45.5 percent with Ovechkin in the lineup. Ten of the Capitals’ last 13 power-play goals have been scored in the slot, led by Wilson’s four. (Ovechkin accounted for four of the team’s nine goals and 49 of its 151 power-play shot attempts through 18 games.)

It will be interesting to see what happens to the Capitals’ power play once Ovechkin returns.

Dubois’ comeback season

Pierre-Luc Dubois’ reputation took a hit over the summer when the Los Angeles Kings traded him less than a year after he signed an eight-year contract with the club.

Now on his fourth team in eight seasons, Dubois has 21 assists and 26 points in 34 games, including a team-leading 14 points in 16 games without Ovechkin. (He had 40 points in 82 games last season.)

Dubois has helped the Capitals generate 58.1 percent of expected goals at 5-on-5 during his minutes, playing mostly alongside McMichael and Wilson. Actual goals are 29-18 (61.7 percent) in favor of Washington with Dubois on the ice.

“He’s had a great start to the year and has been a big part of why we’ve been successful,” Carbery told reporters recently.

Dubois’ playmaking ability has been on display. He completes 1.76 passes to the square per. 20 minutes at 5v5 – 25th out of 428 forwards who have played at least 100 minutes in that situation.

After spending most of his time in Los Angeles in a bottom-six role, Dubois appears reinvigorated as Washington’s second-line center.

“It just feels natural,” Dubois told NHL.com. “It feels like I’m being asked to do a job that I know I can do.”

Surprisingly, the Capitals will have zero representation in the 4 Nations Face-Off in February. Logan Thompson certainly has a bone to pick with Team Canada’s management group after being left off the roster. Thompson leads all Canadian goaltenders this season in goals saved above expectations and is tied for sixth overall.

In fact, Thompson’s GSAE (12.8) is virtually the same as Team Canada’s three goaltenders — Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault — combined (12.93).

Thompson has recorded a positive GSAE in 14 of his 17 starts. His 82.4 quality start percentage is tied with Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz for the league lead. Backup Charlie Lindgren has also been solid, saving 3.5 goals above expectations in 17 starts. (As a tandem, Thompson and Lindgren’s combined 16.3 GSAE is sixth-best in the league.)

The Capitals were unlikely to sustain their blistering scoring pace over a full season, but their foundation seems solid. Because of their strong start, they have probably earned enough points to withstand any difficult points.