Preview #38: New Jersey Devils vs. Carolina Hurricanes

Matchups: New Jersey Devils (23-11-3) vs Carolina Hurricanes (21-12-1). Hurricane’s blog: Land of Canes

The time: 19:00

Broadcast: TV — MSGSN, FanDuel Sports Network South; Sound: Devils Hockey Radio

Home and Home with a Top-3 Metro Team

These two games carry huge significance within the Metropolitan Division, with the Devils currently leading the Capitals and Hurricanes by one and six points, respectively. The Devils have played three more games than each of those teams, and the Hurricanes would hold their point total if they had to win each of their games in the hand. However, two regulation wins would extend the Devils’ lead to 10 points over Carolina, clearly putting them well below New Jersey and Washington while still well above Pittsburgh.

If the Devils were to lose each of those games in regulation, however, Carolina would be just two points behind them with three games still remaining. While I think the Devils will ultimately prevail over Washington for the Metropolitan Division, I’d be shocked if Washington didn’t repeat the lead at least a few times, given their current position amid a red-hot first half. However, if the Devils were to win these two games, I would feel pretty confident that Carolina will not lead the Metro at any point for the rest of the season. They have gone just 11-10-1 since going 10-2 in the first month of play. They have scored an average of 3.09 goals for and against per game, with hot special teams and less fantastic five-on-five results.

Aging veterans

Carolina is still a dangerous team, but some of their supporting players are showing age. Brent Burns has just nine points over 34 games, a sign that the future Hall of Famer may have lost a few steps and may fall short of 1,000 points in his career. He currently has 890 points over 1,449 games and turns 40 in March. It is the final year of his contract and he will likely still have suitors if he decides to play on. He still has decent five-on-five underlying numbers and is still very strong on the penalty kill. Burns had 43 points last season and 61 points in the 2022-23 season.

Former Stokke

The Devils have several former Canes on their roster, with Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, Stefan Noesen and Erik Haula having spent time in Carolina. Pesce played 627 games in Carolina, and this is the second time he will play against his former team. When the Devils last faced Carolina on Nov. 21, Noesen and Hamilton both scored goals, with Noesen picking up two points in a 4-2 win. The Devils have yet to field their full squad to face the Hurricanes in Carolina as they lost in Raleigh on Oct. 15 as Pesce and Luke Hughes were still recovering from injuries.

Key to the game: Close Nečas and don’t underestimate Staal

Through 34 games, the Hurricanes have only two players with 20 or more even strength points: Sebastian Aho and Martin Nečas. Aho has 20 and Nečas has 25. By comparison, the Devils have six such players in Jesper Bratt (26), Jack Hughes (24), Timo Meier (21) and Nico Hischier (20). Only Jack Hughes has 20 power play points on the Devils, while Nečas leads Carolina with 19, closely followed by Shayne Gostisbehere’s 18 total.

The Devils need to take advantage of the Hurricanes’ talented players tonight. Andrei Svechnikov has only been on the ice for 13 Carolina goals and 21 goals against five-on-five this year, while Sebastian Aho isn’t doing much better with 20 goals for and 29 against. Even Nečas has suffered, his offensive production bringing him to just break even with 26 goals for and against. Most of the positive margin for Carolina actually comes from Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook, whose line is outscoring opponents at a nearly two-to-one rate with a similarly impressive expected field goal percentage. If the Devils want to minimize the impact of Jordan Staal tonight, this would be a good time for the Haula line to play some slow, possession hockey so that Nico Hischier can be freed up to dominate the Aho line.

Your thoughts

What do you think of tonight’s match? Want to watch or participate? What are you most looking forward to? Do you think the Devils can bury Carolina in the standings here? Leave your thoughts in the comments below and thanks for reading.