Russia warns against ‘hypotheses’ in Azerbaijan Airlines crash

The Russian government has warned against promoting “hypotheses” about the cause of the crash of a Russian passenger plane that killed 38 people in Kazakhstan on Wednesday.

Some aviation experts suggested the Azerbaijan Airlines plane had been hit by air defense systems over the Russian republic of Chechnya, and pro-government media in Azerbaijan quoted officials as saying a Russian missile was responsible.

Before going down near the Kazakh city of Aktau, the plane was diverted over the Caspian Sea, from its destination in Chechnya to western Kazakhstan.

Twenty-nine of the 67 people on board survived. Azerbaijan held a national day of mourning for the victims of the crash on Thursday.

“This is a great tragedy which has become a huge sorrow for the Azerbaijani people,” President Ilham Aliyev said on Thursday.

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “It would be wrong to make any hypotheses before the conclusions of the investigation. Of course, we will not do this and no one should do this. We have to wait until the investigation is completed. completed.”

Kazakhstan’s chief prosecutor later said the investigation had yet to reach any conclusions.

But some commentators in Azerbaijani media say Azerbaijan expects Russia to admit to shooting down the plane.

Several television channels, which are under strict control of the Azerbaijani government, began broadcasting interviews on Thursday with experts who have spoken openly about the possibility that Russia was responsible.

AnewZ channel said a preliminary investigation had concluded that the plane had been hit by shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile from Russia’s Pantsir-S defense system.

Another pro-government website, Caliber, quoted government sources as saying that no one claimed the plane had been deliberately attacked, but that Baku expected an apology from Russia.

Asked about the reports, the chief prosecutor’s office in Baku told the BBC that each version was being investigated.

As they try to avoid angering Russian President Vladimir Putin, it will be very difficult for the Azerbaijani government to directly blame Russia unless it admits to shooting down the plane.

It seems that the investigative committee made up of Azerbaijani and Kazakh officials may already have evidence of this, but they are waiting for Russia to announce it first.

Moscow must then answer questions such as why Russia did not close its airspace if there was military activity, and why the plane was not allowed to land as soon as possible – instead of directing it to Aktau for landing.

The Embraer 190 aircraft took off from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku on Wednesday morning. It was due to fly to Grozny in Chechnya but was diverted due to fog, the airline said.

A surviving passenger told Russian television that he believed the pilot had twice tried to land in dense fog over Grozny before “the third time, something exploded… some of the plane’s skin had popped off”.

The plane was diverted to Aktau airport, about 450 km (280 miles) to the east. Footage shows the plane hurtling towards the ground at high speed 3km (1.9 miles) from the runway before bursting into flames as it lands.

Kazakh authorities have found the flight data recorder and an investigation is underway. Shortly after the crash, reports from Russian state-controlled TV said the most likely cause was an attack by a flock of birds.

But that kind of collision typically results in the plane sliding towards the nearest airport, says aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia to the Reuters news agency. “You may lose control of the aircraft, but you don’t fly wildly off course as a consequence,” he said.

Justin Crump of risk consultancy Sibylline said the pattern of damage inside and outside the plane indicates that Russian air defenses active in Grozny may have caused the crash.

“It looks very much like the detonation of an anti-aircraft missile behind and to the left of the aircraft if you look at the pattern of shrapnel that we see,” he told BBC Radio 4.

Chechnya has already been hit by Ukrainian drone strikes this month, and authorities in neighboring Ingushetia said the Russian region had been hit for the first time since the war in Ukraine began.

A shopping mall was hit when a drone was shot down in nearby North Ossetia, killing a woman, reports say.

Those on board were mostly Azerbaijani citizens, but there were also some passengers from Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Video footage showed survivors crawling out of the wreckage, some with visible injuries.

The injured were taken to hospital. On Thursday, Azerbaijan’s Azertac news agency said seven were in good enough condition to fly back to Baku.

Azerbaijan Airlines told reporters that the plane had been fully serviced in October and had no technical faults.

Embraer, a Brazilian manufacturer and smaller rival to Boeing and Airbus, has a strong safety record.