Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction, Odds & Picks – Pickswise

On By Littum

This game pits a pair of teams against each other that are similar based on record, but couldn’t be more different in their statistical profiles. Ultimately, the context surrounding each team’s season is what has me rooting for Bowling Green in this contest. The Falcons are certainly better than their record, having gone through a brutal non-conference schedule and playing the toughest conference schedule of any of the MAC contenders. This was a team that was also pretty unlucky from a box-score perspective, as Bowling Green should have finished with at least 8 wins based on second-order win totals. Despite all this, if the tight end of the world Harold Fanin Jr. doesn’t get hurt before the MAC title game earlier this month, we can talk about the Falcons against a stronger opponent than what they see in this game. Bowling Green is top 30 in passing success rate on offense and 24th in passing success rate allowed and 29th in points per possession. drive allowed on defense (College Football Insiders), so this is clearly a well-rounded team on both sides of the ball; one worthy of being a significant favorite in this game.

As for Arkansas State, I strongly believe the Red Wolves may be the worst team playing in a bowl game this season. Like Old Dominion in 2023, this is a team that won nearly all of its games by one possession, and they actually profiled as a team that should have won closer to 4 games than the 7-5 record they finished with. In fact, Arkansas State only had a single win over a team that qualified for a bowl game, and on top of that, the Red Wolves won that game over South Alabama by just 2 points. Butch Jones has done a solid job in Jonesboro, but this is still a defense that is 130th in passing rate, 130th in Early Downs EPA and 124th in points per game. driving this season. That doesn’t bode well against Fannin Jr. and a veteran Bowling Green offense (32nd in EPA per dropback) that should be well-rested and motivated to finish its best season in nearly a decade. Let’s put points with the Falcons.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction: Bowling Green +7.5 (-115) available at time of publication. Playable to 8 (-120).