Aviation experts say Russia’s air defense fire likely caused plane crash in Azerbaijan

On December 27, 2024By Littum

That’s what aviation experts said Thursday Russian anti-aircraft fire was likely responsible before Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.

The remains of the Embraer 190 of Azerbaijan Airlines lie on the ground near the airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, December 25, 2024. (AP photo/Azamat Sarsenbayev)

Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was on its way from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when, for still unclear reasons, it diverted and crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after flown east across the Caspian Sea.

The plane went down about 3 kilometers (2 miles) from Aktau. Cell phone footage circulating online appeared to show the plane making a steep descent before crashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.

The wreckage of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Azamat Sarsenbayev)

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of the Mangystau region, the wreckage of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (The administration of the Mangystau region via AP )

Other footage showed part of its fuselage torn away from the wings and the rest of the plane lying upside down on the grass.

Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-mast on Thursday. Traffic stopped at midday and sirens sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.

Azerbaijan’s president spoke at a press conference on Wednesday Ilham Aliyev said it was too early to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said weather had forced the plane to change its planned course.

“The information I have received is that the plane changed course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and went to Aktau airport, where it crashed on landing,” he said.

In this photo released by the Kazakhstan Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescue workers work at the wreckage of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lying on the ground near the airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Kazakhstan Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan’s Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescue workers work at the wreckage of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lying on the ground near the airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Kazakhstan’s Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said preliminary information indicated the pilots were diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.

Authorities in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia were tight-lipped about a possible cause of the crash, but an Azerbaijani lawmaker blamed Moscow. Rasim Musabekov told Azerbaijan’s Turan news agency that the plane was fired upon while in the skies over Grozny, and called on Russia to offer an official apology.

“Those who did this must face criminal charges,” Musabekov was quoted by Turan as saying that compensation should also be paid to the victims. “If that doesn’t happen, the relationship will be affected.”

As the official crash investigation began, some experts pointed out that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it may have come under fire from Russian air defense systems that repelled a Ukrainian drone attack.

Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was foiled on Wednesday, although federal authorities have not reported it.

Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said analysis of the images of fragments of the downed plane indicated it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.

“Much more to investigate, but at a high level we would assume the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft is well into the 90-99% range,” he said.

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security company based in the United Kingdom, warned its customers that “the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines suspended their flights during the war.

In this photo released by the press service of the Russian Emergencies Ministry, rescuers carry an injured passenger near the Kazakh city of Aktau, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024, after an Azerbaijani Airline plane crashed. (Press service of the Russian Emergencies Ministry via AP)

In this photo released by the press service of the Russian Emergencies Ministry, rescuers prepare to transport an injured passenger near the Kazakh city of Aktau, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024, after an Azerbaijani Airline plane crashed. (Press service of the Russian Emergencies Ministry via AP)

Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company had issued more than 200 warnings regarding drone strikes and air defense systems in Russia during the war.

“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”

Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane’s tail reveal damage consistent with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missile, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.

“It appears that the tail section of the aircraft was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.

Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly several hundred kilometers east over the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.

“Maybe some of the plane’s systems continued to work for some time and the crew believed they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions to land on another place in Russia.

Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government ties, also claimed the plane was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it approached Grozny. It questioned why the Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya’s Security Council, said air defenses shot down drones that attacked the region on Wednesday.

Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities did not allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other nearby Russian airports after it was hit.

Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to hypothesize before the investigators make their verdict.”

Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against jumping to conclusions based on images of the plane’s fragments, describing the claims of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.

According to Kazakh officials, those on board the plane included 42 Azerbaijani nationals, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyz nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment on Thursday.

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Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates and Aida Sultanova in London contributed to this report.