Rain possible on the Front Range this week, but a white Christmas is a ‘sure bet’ in the Colorado mountains

The odds for a white Christmas along Colorado’s Front Range don’t look good.

The region has experienced a streak of hot and dry weather in the days leading up to the holiday. A storm system could bring rain to Metro Denver by Christmas afternoon or evening. Any chance of snow, however, is steadily diminishing, said David Barjenbruch, a senior forecaster with the National Weather Service.

“The storm doesn’t look like it’s going to hit much,” Barjenbruch told CPR News.

It’s a different story in the Colorado highlands. State Climatologist Russ Schumacher said in an email that if you can get to the mountains, “you’re in luck,” as “Colorado’s high elevations are a sure bet for a white Christmas,” at least by the common definition of at least an inch snow already on the ground.

With no more precipitation in the forecast, the region looks set to experience one of its hottest and driest Decembers on record. Barjenbruch said Denver has only gotten a dusting of snow during the last month of the year, and temperatures have been about nine degrees above average.

The Front Range hasn’t seen a blizzard on Christmas since 2015, but Barjenbruch noted that a storm ahead of the 2022 holiday brought enough snow to let residents experience a “white Christmas.”

While recent weather has helped travelers reach their destinations, it hasn’t helped Colorado’s ongoing drought. The latest US Drought Monitor update, released Dec. 19, shows that most of the northern Front Range is currently experiencing a “moderate” or “severe” drought. A smaller area straddling the border between Larimer County and Weld County is now experiencing an “extreme” drought.

Colorado’s mountain snowpack has also suffered due to the dry weather. Per Dec. 23, the average snowpack across the country dropped to 85 percent, according to the national weather and climate center. That’s a reversal from earlier in the year, when those levels were higher than normal due to a wetter November in the Colorado highlands.

There are signs that the dry, hot conditions are affecting tourism on the Western Slope: Yesterday, organizers of the Meeker Skijor event canceled the 3-5 event. January due to lack of snow.

However, it looks like the dry weather won’t last forever. Barjenbruch said the models suggest colder and snowier conditions are likely to arrive in early January.