Red Sox sign free agent pitcher Walker Buehler; Meet the new guy

Who is he and where did he come from?

He is Walker Buehler. I’m not sure how good your short term memory is, but he threw the last pitch of the season that just went against New York Yankeesto close out Dodgers‘ game 5 World Series victory. Yes, he is the defending World Series champion! He had been working on a Hall of Very Good claim as a two-time champion and two-time All-Star who also finished in the top-10 of the Cy Young voting twice. But he’s now a year away from missing an entire season because of what was initially treated as bone spurs in his elbow but ended up requiring a second Tommy John surgery. He comes to the Red Sox on a one-year, $21 million “prove it” deal, and is the team’s second rotation addition in about two weeks … but remember that number later in the article.

Is he good?

He has been very, very good in the past. But in his first season after his second Tommy John, he experienced a noticeable decline. There is clearly some concern about his durability, as he has now gone two straight seasons with fewer than 100 innings pitched. However, I will remind you that he threw 200 innings in 2021 and 182 innings in 2019. That’s also worth noting that his velocity on his four-seamer, which he began going to much less in 2024, didn’t drop much — a little less than a mile per hour, sitting at about 95 MPH. He also has a breaking curve that causes hitters to chase WAY outside the strike zone.

In 2024, he was in the bottom 20 percent of pitchers in xERA, pitching run value, chase and whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage, seeing his fourth straight season with a declining strikeout ratio… but look at these 2021 Savant speak up and tell me there isn’t a good pitcher in there.

It’s now up to Andrew Bailey to figure out how to keep Buehler healthy and rework his post-surgery repertoire.

Tl;dr, just give me his 2024 stats.

75.1 IP, 5.38 ERA, 1-6, -0.2 ERA, 64 K, 28 BB

Career: 47-22, 3.27 ERA, 15 WAR, 754 K, 190 BB

Show me a cool highlight.

Buehler was the guy the Dodgers trusted to win the World Series with a one-run lead, albeit against the bottom of the Yankees’ lineup, including Alex Verdugo (hold your laughter). Look at this 13-inch horizontal break on this last knuckle curve. This pitch is really coming.

What is he doing in his picture up there?

Celebrates, about five seconds after the above highlight. I personally love when athletes strike this “arms up” pose after being clutch like this. He dares a team to pay him in the offseason. And he was born to knock out Alex Verdugo.

What is his role on the 2025 Red Sox?

I want to be clear about those who say $21 million dollars for a pitcher who pitched the worst year of his career is a gross overpayment. Yusei Kikuchi and Sean Manaea got over $20 million a year. Nick Pivetta will too. I also want to be clear: I will overpay ANYONE on a one-year deal. Put bluntly: If he stinks, the deal is over and we’re not bringing him back.

Buehler is 30 years old. If he’s good in the rotation, John Henry will move money around to keep him — or get rightful criticism if he doesn’t. Now, this signing effectively puts someone out of the running for someone who can be more reliable long-term — the Seattle pitchers are likely out of the question, and Corbin Burnes will certainly sign elsewhere. But in a fantasy world where no injuries happen, I’m not mad about a rotation of Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello and Crawford. In a realistic world where injuries happen, or perhaps one where Crochet’s workload is still monitored, a few depth pieces — and GOOD depth pieces — need to be added to the bullpen. But this one-year commitment might as well not be a commitment at all; and we hope Buehler continues to build his Hall of Very Good case here in Boston.