New York City has lost control of crime

It was like something out of the horrors of New York City’s past. At 7:30 yesterday morning, a man approached a woman sleeping on a Coney Island F train. The man proceeded to light the woman on fire, according to police, and calmly watched her burn to death as transit police tried to put out the flames.

A suspect has been arrested. But the killing marks a gruesome milestone – 11 murders in New York’s subways in 2024, highest figure in decades. It contributes to the widespread feeling of discomfort on many people’s daily commute. Transit statistics show that other forms of violent crime have also increased on a per-rider basisleaving millions of New Yorkers to worry about whether they will be next.

But it’s not just the metro. NYPD data that I collected for the Manhattan Institute show that assaults across the city are at their highest level since at least 2006. Crimes such as robbery and car theft remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. The city has witnessed a wave in juvenile delinquents, and it faces growing disorder, including a increase in shoplifting and one explosion of prostitution on Roosevelt Avenue in Queens.

Not so long ago, New York was proof that large, progressive cities could also be safe and orderly. The city’s deep and sustained reduction in crime in the 1990s and 2000s—twice as deep and twice as long as the rest of the country—deserved that nickname “the city that became safe.” But while the city has brought a recent spike in murders under control, gruesome crime stories are once again a daily occurrence. What went wrong?

The answer comes down to systematic failures that left the city’s criminal justice system ill-equipped to deal with rising crime. Police shortages, well-intentioned but harmful reforms and widespread dysfunction in City Hall have conspired to make it feel like America’s biggest city is heading back to the bad old days.

The problems start with the New York Police Department. The nation’s largest police force, the NYPD number about 33,000 sworn officers. But that’s down from about 36,000 in 2020. And as many as a quarter of officers are considering quitting, according to one recent study from the John Jay College of Criminal Justice at CUNY.

As a result, the NYPD is doing less than it used to. The areas along Roosevelt Avenue, e.g. once had 100 foot patrol officers; today they have 20. The Police Benevolent Association, which represents NYPD line officers, have complained that the Transit Bureau is too understaffed to keep the subway safe — leading to incidents like Sunday’s brutal murder.

But the problems go beyond the NYPD. From 2018 to 2022, New York State implemented a series of sweeping reforms to its criminal justice system. While these changes were well-intentioned and in some cases successful, loopholes and quirks have often handcuffed the system.

The best known is New York’s bail reform, which greatly limited the use of pretrial detention. Analysis from John Jay’s Data Collaborative for Justice has found that bail reform did not increase overall crime in the city, but likely increased crime among repeat offenders — including high-frequency recidivists who have made headlines about several re-arrests in a single day.

But the state also reformed its juvenile court laws, leading to a sharp increase in crime among 16-year-olds, according to New York Criminal Justice Agency. And that made aggressive changes to the process of discovery of evidence that requires prosecutors to release vast amounts of information to the defense in a shorter period of time, resulting in many cases not being prosecuted.

The blame for the city’s problems lies, of course, first and foremost with the mayor. Eric Adams, a former NYPD officer, was elected on a tough-on-crime platform. But since taking office, he has been embroiled in scandals that have touched every part of his administration. That includes public safety: His former deputy mayor for public safety, Phil Banks, quit in the middle a federal investigation. And the NYPD recently forced out its highest-ranking uniformed officer, Department Chief Jeffrey Maddrey, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. (Maddrey denies the accusations.)

New Yorkers shouldn’t have to live like this. Not so long ago they did, of course. Throughout the 1970s and 80s, New York was a hotbed of violence and urban decay. But smart policing and effective governance made it safe. And both the city’s residents and the Americans should want it to be like that again.

Getting there, however, means getting crime under control again. That means a significant expansion of NYPD hiring so the police can keep up. And it also means careful, targeted changes to New York’s criminal justice reforms. New York judges must be allowed to detain people prior to trial based on their risk of recidivism, as in any other state in the Union. The overly burdensome requirements of the discovery reform can be eased, and we can make it easier to remove young people to adult law without thwarting the basic purpose of the reform.

Most importantly, however, the city needs new leadership in public safety, untainted by scandal and corruption. Veterans of the force are optimistic about Jessica Tisch, the newly appointed police commissioner widely regarded as a model of administrative efficiency. She must have room to maneuver clean up the department.

All of these steps are necessary because New York’s crime problem is already out of control. New York subway riders deserve better than to spend their commute wondering if they might be set on fire. And anyone who believes that American cities can and should be great deserves better, too.