What the Jesús Luzardo trade means for the Phillies

It is now officiallyas the Phillies have announced that they have acquired left-handed starter Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. Here’s our post with the full details of the deal.

It’s an interesting move that comes just days after Dave Dombrowski said in a press conference that the Phillies were essentially done with their offseason. Luzardo has top of the rotation talent and ability, as he proved in 2023 when he posted a 3.58 ERA over 178.2 IP and struck out 208 batters while walking just 55. The problem is that Luzardo has very real injury issues as he Appeared in just 12 games in 2024 due to left elbow tightness and a lumbar stress reaction.

The Phillies already boasted one of the best rotations in the league in 2024, finishing third in fWAR and eighth in ERA. By adding Luzardo, Philadelphia has given itself one of the best and deepest rotations in baseball on paper, as he joins a unit that already has Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez with Andrew Painter on the horizon for some time in 2025.

So why make this trade and double down on what is already a strength? On the surface, it allows the Phillies to listen more to trade offers for Ranger Suárez and possibly flip him for a lineup upgrade now or at the trade deadline as he is in his final year of team control. However, it appears the Phillies will opt to keep both pitchers this year and roll six deep in their rotation for now.

There is logic there too. It should be noted that Luzardo is under contract through arbitration through 2026 and only makes $8 million in 2024. If healthy in 2026, Luzardo will go a long way in helping mitigate the impending loss of Suarez in free agency for a very reasonable price. There’s also the ever-present likelihood that at least one of their starters will miss at least some time with an injury, though the Phillies have been remarkably able to keep their starters mostly healthy. Injuries aside, Philadelphia needed to build a better bridge to Painter’s midseason debut than Taijuan Walker and a cavalcade of other uninspiring fifth-start options. Acquiring Luzardo could also give the Phillies enough confidence in their depth to cut bait with Walker, who was one of the worst starters in the league in 2024 despite making $18M in the second year of a four-year deal valued at $72M.

As for the offense, it’s clear now that the Phillies haven’t liked their options. They didn’t want to lock into another long-term, big-money contract for an older free agent or trade either Painter, Aidan Miller or Justin Craford for an upgrade in a very limited market for hitters, especially for outfielders. They decided that leaning into run prevention was the best way to address their offensive deficiencies. Philadelphia wants to build a sustainable contender, and to do that, they can reset the payroll in 2026 and look to fill holes from their farm more cheaply, thus maintaining flexibility. Time will tell if this is the right course of action, of course, but it paints their offseason plan so far in a clearer light.

Luzardo’s upside was worth the prospect cost, which the Phillies paid with a package headlined by fourth-ranked prospect Starlyn Caba. The 19-year-old infielder has a huge ceiling, but he is still only a teenager and has only played 26 games in A-ball. There are questions about Caba’s bat, and the Marlins are banking on a hitting development department that hasn’t had many success stories of late. Miami’s major league offense ranks dead last in runs scored since the start of 2021 and fourth worst in OPS.

There is always a chance that a lottery ticket type lead like Caba puts it all together, but the risk in this particular deal was worth it with the huge cost of starting pitching leads or free agency money lately. Even if Luzardo is fighting or injured, the package handed to him will not kill you, although it would hurt. It’s worth the potential to have a 4 WAR pitcher under contract for two years at approximately $17M total.