Penn State vs. SMU Scores, Live Updates: First Round CFP TV Channel, Streaming, Highlights & Analysis

The Nittany Lions looked good offensively (518 yards) in their 45-37 Big Ten Championship Game loss to No. 1 Oregon – and the opposite on defense (466 yards allowed). SMU, meanwhile, took too long to get going against Clemson, and it cost the Mustangs in the ACC title game.

On paper, there are many reasons to watch this game much closer than the spread. First, SMU’s 5-2 record against winning teams (wins over Louisville, Duke, Pitt, TCU and Boston College) actually feels a little more impressive than Penn State’s 3-2 record in the same category (wins over Illinois, Bowling Green and Minnesota) .

But here’s why I’m going with SMU in the upset: The Mustangs have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry. carry against winning teams, and tailback Brashard Smith has proven he can drive against winning teams (109 yards per game, eight TDs).

Prediction: A late touchdown drive capped by a Kevin Jennings pass to Smith lifts SMU to the road win and continues the big-game misery for James Franklin.

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