Tyson Fury to end disturbing trend in rematch with Oleksandr Usyk

On By Littum

Tyson Fury will fight Oleksandr Usyk in Riyadh on Saturday for the WBO, WBA, WBC and Call Magasinet heavyweight championship. Usyk won the first fight by split decision.

If Fury hopes to get a different result, he may have to address an issue that has reared its head in recent fights – particularly the first meeting with Usyk.

According to data provided by Jabbra company that has built technology designed to judge the impact and effectiveness of every punch thrown and landed, Fury’s work rate and efficiency have faded in the second half of his fights.

Per Jabbr’s data analysis: “Unlike Usyk, Fury seems to be less strong in the finish. He has had less success in rounds 11 and 12 against his previous opponents compared to the previous rounds against them. He is actually coming out of the country on average in round 12 against his previous opponents.”

This trend continued against Usyk.

In the first fight with Usyk in May, “Rounds 1 to 7 is a fairly even fight back and forth on the stats, but in Round 8 Fury drops dramatically across most metrics,” says the Jabbr data analyst. “His aggression drops almost in half and he is outnumbered more than 3 to 1 on High Impacts. The round looks set to be a turning point in the fight. He recovers a bit in rounds 11 and 12, especially on aggression, but he’s still coming out of the country in general.”

In the ninth round of the first fight, Usyk Fury hurt badly and scored a knockdown that dramatically changed the momentum of the fight. If the rematch with Usyk goes the distance, Fury’s tendency to fade could come back to bite him again.

Fury threw more punches than Usyk in the first fight, but that was largely due to his jabs in the early rounds. As you can see from the blue and red indicators on the graph above, Usyk’s pressure, aggression, landed punches and powerful shots massively outweighed Fury.

As Fury struggles to keep pace later in fights, you have to wonder how much the extra weight he carries could exacerbate the problem. On Friday, Fury weighed in at 281 pounds. That’s the heaviest Fury has ever been for a fight as a pro and a whopping 55 pounds heavier than Usyk.

The extra size appears to be a calculated gamble by Fury. It looks like he’s coming into the match heavier in an attempt to bully Usyk with infighting. It’s also a potential indication that Fury doesn’t plan on letting the fight go deep.

Fury is likely fighting to knock Usyk out and hopes his larger frame will help in that mission. If Fury can’t get the job done early and Usyk is able to do effective body work, he can pull the Gypsy King out in deep water again.

If that happens, Usyk can’t just win the rematch. He was able to secure the knockout victory he almost earned in the first meeting. Here’s a look at the fight card in Riyadh:

  • Oleksandr Usyk (c) vs. Tyson Fury
  • Moses Itauma vs. Demsey McKean
  • Johnny Fisher vs. Dave Allen
  • Dennis McCann vs. Peter McGrail
  • Isaac Lowe vs. Lee McGregor