Is it going to snow for Christmas? Map shows weather forecasts for the 2024 holiday

With Christmas just days away, many Americans may be dreaming of a white Christmas, but few will end up walking in a winter wonderland. The warm and above average temperatures in the forecast across the continental United States for the week of Christmas 2024 are expected to last possibly precipitation that falls as rain, not snow, in many parts of the country.

Where is the most likely to get snow this Christmas?

If you’re looking for soft white flakes, some spots have a better chance than others.

This year, the only parts of the US likely to see a white Christmas will be in the Rocky Mountains and along the US border with Canada. It includes some northern areas of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Weather forecast for holiday travel

For those who try travel on Monday, the more difficult regions will be in the Upper Midwest and in the northern Rockies. Falling snowflakes can be found in states like Idaho, western Montana, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Interstate travel will be hazardous through portions of I-15, I-90, I-84, I-94 and I-75.

Wintry conditions will shift from the Great Lakes region to the Northeast on Tuesday. Cold air moves through to bring upwards of half a foot of snow to the interior Northeast.

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will bring showers to the Mississippi Valley. To the west, the next atmospheric river will deliver rain to the lower elevations, with snow falling in the Cascade Mountains. Hazardous interstate travel conditions will be found along I-5, I-90, I-94, I-80, I-81 and even parts of I-95 up the East Coast.

Map of snow forecast for Christmas Day 2024

On Wednesday, Christmas Day, not many places will see the fresh snowfall of picture book holidays.

The definition of a “white Christmas” by National Weather Service have at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning. The only areas likely to meet this qualification on Christmas Day this year will be in the Rockies and along the US-Canada border.

The moisture from the atmospheric river in the west will move into the Rockies to bring light snow to the higher elevations.

Elsewhere, showers are sticking around in the Mississippi Valley, making for a soft Christmas Day. Temperatures are expected to be well above freezing in most places, which means that precipitation will primarily be rain. Messy travel this Christmas can be found along Interstate 40, I-55, I-40, I-70, I-80 and I-90.

On Thursday, the next round of weather moves into the North-West. Lower elevation rain is expected along I-5, while in the Interior Northwest, heavier snowfall is expected in the Cascades and down into the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Lingering rain showers continue in the Mississippi Valley and into parts of the Midwest.

Is white Christmas becoming less common?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been tracking snowfall data across the United States for years, and says there have been some remarkable changes over the past four decades, “in line with reality prolonged heating.”

When comparing the average probability of Christmas snowfall from 1981-2010 to the period from 1991-2020, NOAA says, “More areas experienced decreases in their chances of a white Christmas than experienced increases.”

The NOAA map below shows areas with the highest historical probability of seeing a white Christmas. Areas shaded in light blue have a higher than average chance, while the northern and mountainous areas marked in white have historically had snow Christmas at least 90% of the time.

You can explore an interactive version of the map on NOAA’s website here.