2025 NFL draft order projections: Giants, Patriots on top

On By Littum

With just three weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, we’re starting to think about the 2025 draft, which begins April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the projected first-round draft picks for all 32 teams using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

Each week during the season, FPI projects the draft order by simulating the rest of the season 20,000 times. Game probabilities are primarily based on the model’s team ratings and game rankings. Draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team’s average draft position across the simulations.

Our FPI predictions still have the New York Giants picking No. 1 after week 15, but how is the rest of the order doing? Check out our full forecasts below and check back every Tuesday for updates throughout the season.

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Average Draft Position: 2.8
FPI chance to earn no. 1 choice: 37.4%
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 88.4%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 99.9%

Average Draft Position: 3.1
FPI chance to earn no. 1 choice: 23.6%
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 87.6%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 99.7%

Average Draft Position: 3.5
FPI chance to earn no. 1 choice: 13.1%
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 85.0%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 99.1%

Average Draft Position: 4.4
FPI chance to earn no. 1 choice: 13.8%
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 64.5%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 98.0%

Average Draft Position: 5.0
FPI chance to earn no. 1 choice: 6.1%
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 59.2%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 99.8%

Average Draft Position: 5.4
FPI chance to earn no. 1 choice: 3.6%
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 51.5%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 99.3%

Average Draft Position: 5.5
FPI chance to earn no. 1 choice: 2.4%
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 49.4%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 99.0%

Average Draft Position: 8.2
FPI chance to earn no. 1 choice:
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 10.5%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 88.8%

Average Draft Position: 8.7
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 3.4%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 86.5%

Average Draft Position: 9.4
FPI chance to get top-five pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 77.7%

Average Draft Position: 12.3
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 13.2%

Average Draft Position: 12.6
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 17.4%

Average Draft Position: 13.4
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 10.1%

Average Draft Position: 14.0
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 6.0%

Average Draft Position: 14.3
FPI chance to achieve top-10 selection: 2.1%

Average Draft Position: 17.1

Average Draft Position: 17.9

Average Draft Position: 19.1

Average Draft Position: 20.6

Average Draft Position: 21.7

Average Draft Position: 22.3

Average Draft Position: 22.4

Average Draft Position: 22.8

Average Draft Position: 24.0

Average Draft Position: 24.6

Average Draft Position: 26.1

Average Draft Position: 26.4

Average Draft Position: 26.8

Average Draft Position: 27.7

Average Draft Position: 28.0

Average Draft Position: 28.8

Average Draft Position: 29.0