Broncos-Chargers Betting Preview (Odds, Lines, Best Bets)

Game overview

Week 16 opens with a matchup between AFC West rivals in the current sixth-seeded Denver Broncos and the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Chargers.

Although Los Angeles maintains a strong 9-4-1 record against the spread, last week’s blowout loss marked the team’s third straight loss in the last four weeks with a pair of failed covers. However, the Chargers have excelled when putting up points this year, maintaining a coverage rate of 77.8% as a favorite – second only to the Broncos.

Problems have arisen for the Chargers in recent weeks, stemming from a drastic drop in offensive productivity. Since Week 12, Los Angeles is only 25th in the EPA per game – a stark contrast to their top-11 mark over the previous four weeks. This decline can be attributed to the offense’s lack of consistent playmaking ability, with the unit posting just a 15.4% touchdown drive rate (27th) and registering a successful play on just 31.8% of snaps (28th) over that span.

That could spell trouble for the stalwart Broncos defense coming to town. Denver’s unit has produced the league’s best EPA per game allowed this season, largely due to their opportunistic nature. The Broncos have produced the most points in the NFL by a defense (32), highlighted by three defensive touchdowns in their past two games.

A stout defense paired with a promising young quarterback in Bo Nix has led this team to the NFL’s best record against the spread (11-3), with their last failed cover coming back in Week 9. Playing in the thin air of Denver is not only place this team knows how to cover as they have a 6-1 record on the road this season.

However, the Broncos still have something to prove after the same Chargers team beat them back in Week 6 — a game in which Los Angeles covered as a 3-point favorite in Denver. With postseason positioning on the line, expect both teams to empty the tank in this divisional matchup.

RB Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers: Under 27.5 rushing yards (-116) — 5.4% PFF Edge

After JK Dobbins landed on injured reserve after Week 12, a young, talented running back waiting in the wings was expected to take over the Chargers’ backfield. However, Vidal’s contributions have been limited despite his expanded role. Over the past three games, the freshman running back has totaled just 15 carries while averaging 4.2 yards per carry. tote game, earning just a 56.7 PFF grade over the span. The volume just isn’t there to facilitate his rushing yardage lines, resulting in him only exceeding his rushing line once this season.

Denver’s defense is adept at holding backs down, having surrendered the second-lowest EPA per game. rush this season. The Broncos have also allowed the third-lowest yards per carry. carries allowed (3.9) and the sixth-lowest explosive run play percentage (11.0%).