The Art of Sport LA Bowl: California vs. UNLV – Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends and stats

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UNLV (10-3) has come a long way in the past two years, with HC Barry Odom and OC Brennan Marion coaching the Running Rebels to their second consecutive Mountain West Championship game. In addition to the previously mentioned loss to Boise, UNLV’s only other blemish was a thrilling 44-41 OT loss to 9-3 ACC program Syracuse. Wins over Big-12 programs @Houston and @Kansas show how far the Rebs have come, with UNLV’s offense becoming lethal in the mid-20s, ranking 4th in marginal explosiveness and 3rd in IsoPPP. When the field is shortened, they struggle, ranking 118th with a 50.7% red zone touchdown rate. Their run defense is solidly 9th in EPA/rush. However, UNLV’s secondary is susceptible to being beat over the top as they rank 129th in air yards per carry. goals (8.7) and 76th in passing explosiveness.

California (6-6) got off to a hot start winning their first three games with a 21-14 win over @Auburn in Week 2 to hang their hat on. Cal went on to lose four consecutive games by a combined scoring margin of just nine points before taking three of their next four to gain bowl eligibility. The Bears’ rushing offense lacks consistency, ranking 118th in EPA/rush and 125th in YAC, which is a problem as starting QB Fernando Mendoza is in the transfer window and backup QB Chandler Rogers is questionable to play. Cal’s defense ranks 33rd in EPA/play and 27th in explosive play rate allowed, with their run D ranking an excellent 10th in yards per carry. successful rush allowed.

NBC Sports has all the latest information and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

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Game details and how to watch The Art of Sport LA Bowl: California vs. UNLV

· Date: Wednesday 17 December 2024
· Time: 9:00 PM EST
· Location: SoFi Stadium
· City: Los Angeles, CA
· TV/Streaming: ESPN

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Betting odds for California vs. UNLV

  • Money line: Cal (+120), UNLV (-145)
  • Spread: UNLV (-3)
  • Over/Under: 47.5 points

This game actually opened with Cal favored by -1.5/-120, but has since flipped to UNLV -3/-145. With Cal QB Mendoza out, the total has plummeted from 51.5 to a low of 47.5.

NBC Sports Betting Best Bets

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) opines:
“Cal is one of the more pass-oriented Power Four programs, ranking 115th in standard downs run rate and 101st in rush rate on pass downs. With Chandler Rogers’ availability very much in doubt, we’ve already seen a big shift in UNLV’s favor as prospects line up to fade CJ Harris. I’m putting the -3 and backing the Running Rebels over Cal.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insights, market analysis and statistical data to help players gain more information before placing their bets.

Quarterback matchup for California vs. UNLV

  • Cabbage: Opening-game starter Fernando Mendoza is set to transfer, so expect to see former Ohio QB CJ Harris, who has completed 84-of-158 passes for 904 yards and a 53.2% completion rate with a 5-for- 5 ratio over his career. He has some running ability when given the chance after racking up 265 rushing yards and three touchdowns over his five-year career. He represents a significant downgrade from Mendoza, so hopefully North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers is healthy enough to suit up.
  • UNLV: Las Vegas picked up FCS signal callers Matthew Sluka and Campbell’s Hajj-Malik Williams. Sluka started the first three games before an NIL disagreement forced him off the team with OC Marion, handing the starting reins to Williams, who is completing 61.4% of his passes for 7.8 YPA and a 17-for-5 relationship. Hajj-Malik’s 11.0 ADOT is the 11th highest mark among 108 FBS and he has earned 50+ rushing yards in 9-of-11 contests. The fifth-year player has earned a 78th percentile PFF overall grade in his first FBS season.

Betting trends and latest statistics

  • California has 282 receptions in 12 games (23.5 per game) this season, 4th best among ACC power players. UNLV’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game this season, which is 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
  • Hajj-Malik Williams has been sacked on 11% of pass attempts this season, 9th-most among FBS quarterbacks.
  • UNLV has 17 interceptions this season, second most among non-Power Conference teams
  • UNLV has completed passes for 20+ yards on 80 of their 694 total pass attempts since the 2023 season, 34th best among FBS offenses.
  • California is 6-13 (.316) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, 37th-worst in the FBS. (Average: 0.422)
  • Jaydn Ott has averaged just 2.9 Yards per Carry this season, 2nd worst among FBS Running Backs.
  • Jack Endries has been targeted 108 times since the 2023 season, 10th most among Power Conference Tight Ends.
  • California has allowed opponents to catch 71 of 111 passes in the red zone since the 2023 season, 4th worst among Power Conference teams.

College Football talk takes over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. SET THE EDGE is your source for all sports betting. Get all the insights of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton and Brad Thomas Thursdays at 6:00 AM ET right here or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (open for now)

  • Oregon +900 to +350
  • Texas +1000 to +350
  • Georgia +500 to +500
  • Ohio State +700 to +500

Highest Ticket %

  • Ohio State 11.9%
  • Texas 10.1%
  • Georgia 9.6%

Highest Handle %

  • Ohio State 14.8%
  • Georgia 12.4%
  • Alabama 11.4%

Biggest liabilities

  • Alabama
  • Arizona State
  • Notre Dame

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  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
  • Eric Froton (@CFFroton)