Mets to sign Griffin Canning

The Mets agree Griffin Canning on a one-year, $4.25MM free agent deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The contract, pending a physical, includes an additional $1MM in performance bonuses. The Mets have four open roster spots, so a corresponding move will not be necessary. Canning is a Wasserman client.

This will technically be Canning’s third team of the offseason. The Angels gave him to the Braves in a one-for-one trade for Jorge Soler hours after the trading market reopens. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out at the time, Canning wasn’t a lock to stick around in Atlanta for more than a few weeks. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $5.1MM salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility. The Braves balked at that price and cut him, confirming the deal was to shed the final two years of Soler’s contract.

That made Canning a free agent for the first time in his career. The 28-year-old heads to Queens and should compete for a rotation job. Canning has over five years of service and cannot be sent to the minors without his consent. He’ll be on the MLB roster in some capacity, though it’s possible he’ll be pushed into long relief to open the year.

A second-round pick out of UCLA in 2017, Canning immediately became one of the Angels’ better pitching prospects. He profiled as a fastball college arm that had a chance to land in the middle of the rotation. Canning reached the big leagues within two years, but he has had an up-and-down career. He had a 4.58 average over 90 1/3 innings as a rookie. His best season came during the shortened 2020 schedule when he posted a 3.99 ERA through 11 starts.

It remains Canning’s only sub-4.00 showing. Opponents tagged him to a 5.60 ERA across 14 MLB appearances in 2021, leading the Halos to option him to Triple-A. He landed almost immediately on the injury list with a stress reaction in his lower back. It continued the following year and cost him the entire 2022 season.

At the time, it looked like injuries could derail his career. The back was the most serious, but he had also struggled with recurring elbow soreness early in his career. Fortunately, Canning has managed to stay mostly healthy over the last two seasons. He landed on the injured list twice in 2023, though both were minimal stints related to minor leg issues. Canning avoided IL entirely this year. However, his effectiveness has waned.

Canning pitched to a 4.32 ERA across 127 innings two seasons ago. This year was a struggle as he allowed 5.19 earned runs per inning. His strikeout rate fell to a personal low 17.6%, more than eight points south of the previous year’s 25.9% clip. The walks ticked up a few points, while his swinging strikeout rate dropped from 12.8% to a league average rate of 11%.

Things also took a small step back. Canning averaged 93.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball this season, a tick below the previous season’s 94.7 MPH mark. Opponents teed off on that pitch, finishing with 16 homers with a .529 slugging percentage. Canning has a fairly typical four-pitch mix (fastball, changeup, slider, curveball) and has occasionally looked like a fourth starter. The Mets will try to help him find that form more consistently.

Canning becomes the third potential starter the Mets have added via free agency. They went to the middle of the market to play on the upside Frankie Montas and Clay Holmesthe latter of which will stretch into rotational work after six seasons as a full-time replacement. Canned food doesn’t have the same ceiling—hence the far lower price—but is consistent with New York’s apparent preference for storage depth.

Montas, Kodai Senga, David Petersonand Holmes should all be in the opening day rotation. can, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn would compete for the fifth starting job as things stand. The Mets might prefer to run a six-man rotation. Senga was limited to one regular season start this year due to injury. They will have to closely monitor Holmes’ workload so he doesn’t tire. Blackburn finished 2024 at IL and underwent spinal surgery after the season that could delay him in Spring Training.

The Mets could use at least another mid-rotation arm to solidify this group. They have kept in touch with Sean Manaea since he rejected their qualifying offer. Various reports have given them a long shot to land Corbin Burnsbut The Athletic tied them up Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta (each of which remains unsigned) during the Winter Meetings. Adding another starter would allow the Mets to push at least one of Canning, Megill or Blackburn into a multi-inning relief role.

RosterResource calculates New York’s wage obligations and competition tax about $255 million. Owner Steve Cohen has been comfortable pushing their CBT number well beyond $300MM in previous years. There is little reason for him to retreat now that they have landed Juan Soto. For now, they remain in the lowest level of luxury tax penalty. They are taxed at a rate of 50% on expenses between $241MM and $261MM, so the tax burden on Canning is $2,125MM. That brings the investment to $6.375 million before incentives.

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