3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 12/18/24

On December 19, 2024By Littum

College basketball is back, giving us plenty of betting options with so many teams in action every day.

Fortunately, we have ample tools at our disposal that can help our chances of finding a good value bet. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that provide insight into team-level effectiveness, and Sports reference also provides a wide range of useful team stats.

Let’s check out the FanDuel Sportsbook’s college basketball odds and pick some of today’s best bets using the tools mentioned.

Please note that lines may change during the day after this article is published.

Today’s Top College Basketball Picks

No. 21 Memphis Tigers at Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia +4.5 (-118)

While Virginia has struggled against ranked opponents this season, this will be their first home game against one, which should give us a bit more confidence that they can keep this close to Memphis or maybe even pull it off.

For starters, the Cavaliers play at the slowest pace in the country, ranking 364 out of 364 teams in adjusted pace, according to Bart Torvik, which combined with their 34th-ranked adjusted defense should help keep the Tigers from getting out to a invincible lead.

The key will be whether Virginia’s mediocre offense can hold its own, as they rank just 182nd in adjusted offensive efficiency.

One area that could help them is their shooting from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers are 39th in three-point percentage and 99th in three-point rate, and it just so happens that the Tigers are 314th in three-point rate allowed. If Virginia can hit their threes, it will go a long way toward them covering.

Memphis is great at getting to the foul line (11th in free throw rate), but this is another category where Virginia matches up well because they allow free throws at the 6th-lowest clip.

It’s worth noting that the Tigers are an elite team in three-point percentage (second best), so things could go south quickly for the Cavaliers if they get hot from deep. Fortunately for Virginia, Memphis also shoots threes at a low rate (297th), which could help lessen the blow.

Public models are in unison on this one. Bart Torvik and Massey ratings both project a one-score game with Memphis winning by less than three points. number Four’s game projections agree and see that Virginia covers 63.7% of the time.

No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 24 Michigan Wolverines

Oklahoma +3.5 (-120)

The Sooners come in undefeated and ranked higher than the Wolverines, yet they are underdogs in this Jumpman Invitational matchup. Michigan is the higher-rated team on Bart Torvik (23rd vs. 49th), so their status as favorites is justified, but this could still be an opportunity to back Oklahoma.

Despite ranking 33rd in adjusted offense, Michigan has some glaring weaknesses when they have the ball. They are 335th in turnover rate, which is especially notable against a Sooners defense that ranks 19th in defensive turnover rate. Additionally, the Wolverines don’t get many freebies from the foul line with a 67.9% (274th) free throw percentage.

Oklahoma is not offensive either, and ranks as no. 40 in adjusted offense, and while they are average on the offensive glass, they may be able to get more second-chance points against a Michigan team that ranks 273rd in defensive rebound rate.

Both Massey Ratings and numberFire not only project Oklahoma to cover, but they see them winning straight up. The Sooners money line is priced at +126.

Butler Bulldogs at no. 9 Marquette Golden Eagles

Butler +13.5 (-102)

On Bart Torvik, Marquette is ranked 13th while Butler is 82nd, so the latter will have their work cut out for them, but the Bulldogs can lose by double-digit points and still cover that lofty number.

Both teams come into this one a little flat. Butler has lost three in a row, while Marquette has lost two of their last three. While that’s not necessarily a huge plus for the Bulldogs, at least they’re not facing a team riding a hot streak.

Statistically, Butler has a few things going for him. Offensively, they are 5th in free throw rate and 19th in three-point percentage, so they are capable of making a run. They also rank 22nd in effective field goal percentage defense, which should help them slow down the Golden Eagles’ 24th-ranked adjusted offense.

As for Marquette, despite ranking 38th in three-point rate, they are just 156th in three-point percentage, so a cold shooting night from downtown shouldn’t be ruled out. The Golden Eagles are 288th in free throws made, so the Bulldogs don’t have to worry about giving up points like that either.

Bart Torvik projects Marquette to win by 12 points, while Massey Ratings has a margin of 10. numberFire predicts a 60.9% probability of Butler covering.

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What bets stand out to you across the nation tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook’s latest college basketball odds to see the full menu of options.

The above writer is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The advice given by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.