Thursday’s rocks will likely deliver plowable snowfall accumulations

Our next weather system is on the cards heading toward Minnesota on Thursday.

We’ll take a break on Wednesday with mixed sun and highs in the teens north and 20s south.

Expect high temperatures on Wednesday

Expect high temperatures on Wednesday

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Thursday’s system looks more potent than our light Tuesday snow machine. The system will turn southeast across Minnesota from the wee hours of Thursday morning into the evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model is typical of most models in timing and coverage Thursday. The forecast model below runs between midnight and Thursday at 18.00.

NOAA NAM 3 km model 2

North American Mesoscale 3 km model between midnight and Thursday at 18.00

NOAA via Tropical Treats

This system looks like an efficient snowfall producer. It will probably be drier snow with snow-to-water ratio between 15 and 20 to 1.

Forecast models continue to produce impressive snowfall amounts between 3 and 7 inches with some locally higher totals.

NOAA GFS snowfall output 2

Global Forecast System snowfall output through Friday

NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Expect smooth roads on Thursday if our system stays on track.

We will watch Wednesday’s forecast model runs for any changes. Any shift in the storm track north or south can affect the expected snowfall.

Follow along.