‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’ to best ‘Mufasa’ at the US box office, but Disney Pic eyes 180 million. $ global opening

After the Thanksgiving duel between two female-driven films, Moana 2 and Evil, holdovers will give way to the two big tentpoles of Christmas: Paramounts Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney’s prequel Mufasa: The Lion King.

Given the rage of the teenage boy and the gameboy, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will disturb Mufasa in his home opener with high $50 million to $60 million. Some rivals even believe there is a bigger gap between the two well north of $10m. But in its global debut, Mufasa is king at $180 million. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will not begin its overseas rollout until Christmas Day.

Mufasa and Moana 2 in its fourth weekend is after the same younger female audience. Moana 2 is expected to fall by around 50% more $12 million. Evils fifth weekend is also expected to be around $12 million.

This Wednesday, Mufasa begins rolling out in major markets including France and Korea, then adds Germany, Italy, Australia, Brazil and Mexico on Thursday, with Spain, UK, China and Japan joining on Friday. All in $130 million. plus overseas with room for upside films from Oscar-winning filmmaker Barry Jenkins. Currently at 61% fresh with Rotten Tomatoes critics, the stunning photorealistic animated film tells the story of the lion-turned-king Mufasa, who is orphaned as a youth and befriends a lovable lion named Taka – the heir to a royal bloodline . Their bond is tested as they team up to avoid a deadly enemy.

Here in the US, the film will play in 4,000 theaters, including 400 Imax and 2,300 3D screens. PLFs will be shared with Sonic the Hedgehog 3. Preview starts Thursday at 2 p.m Mufasa already has $7M in advance ticket sales; Sonic the Hedgehog 3 precedes it this weekend. Sales increase from Christmas onwards. Women of all ages are the target of the demo Mufasa, while Paramount has the 17-34 audience, teens and boys 6-10. Sonic 3 playing in 3,800 domestic theaters, with the first shows at 3pm Thursday for an opening day fan event, followed by 5pm shows across the country.

Back in 2019, Jon Favreau The Lion King went early to China, ahead of other international markets, pulling in a $50M+ opening. It is not on the cards this time as the market is still uncertain and is not expected to deliver similar results. The Lion King posted a stellar opening of $191.7M. stateside, the 10th biggest opening of all time at the US/Canada box office.

As for offshore comps, live-action if you will – even if it’s animated – takes 2019’s The Lion King isn’t really a fit given its outsized performance in a more stable global marketplace and in the summer.

More à propos abroad is similarly timed Christmas confectionery Wonka ($71M at today’s rates in like-for-likes) and Jumanji: The Next Level ($122.8 million), as well as the release in May 2019 of Aladdin ($115.3 million).

Stateside, it’s about 5x-6x multiple for Mufasa and Sonic 3. Even if the latter comes in below its previous installments in 2020 ($58M) and 2022 ($72.1M), the expectation is that the threequel will best both its respective domestic totals of $148.9M and $190.8M in the end.

Similarly, abroad, the cinema takes off after Christmas, as most cinema-goers take a holiday in connection with the holiday.