Bills or Eagles at no. 1 after the fall of the lions?

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NFL power rankings entering Week 16 of the 2024 season (previous rankings in parentheses):

  1. Buffalo Bills (3): They’ve scored at least 30 points in their last eight games — just the fifth team ever to do so in a single season — averaging 35 during that stretch. According to NFL Media, they are the only team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to score at least five touchdowns in three consecutive games without giving up a sack or turnover. The Bills play the Patriots twice and the Jets once over the last three weeks – suggesting the AFC East champs will score a lot more points, go 14-3 and have a good shot at the conference’s No. 1 playoff seed, while QB Josh Allen should produce another 12 TDs or so in the ongoing bid for his first league MVP.
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (2): After winning their club-record 10th straight game, they are one win shy of putting a Christmas bow on the NFC East. Now officially the league’s no. 1 defense in points and yards allowed, opponents are averaging just 15.1 points during Philly’s heater. Hopefully the “little something” that started bothering RB Saquon Barkley on Sunday won’t turn into a more serious problem.
  3. Detroit Lions (1): In a season full of body blows, the combination of losing DL Alim McNeill and RB David Montgomery is at least as cruel as Aidan Hutchinson’s trip to injured reserve. Maybe this proud but depleted pride can keep winning shootouts … and maybe it won’t even get a home playoff game.
  4. Green Bay Packers (6): The Lions (twice) are the only team to beat them since Week 4, though the Pack probably tops out as their division rivals take wideout after wideout. They look to be scary playoff road warriors for the second stellar season.
  5. Minnesota Vikings (5): Like the Lions, they also control the path to the NFC North crown — one that could end with a winner-take-all game in Detroit in Week 18 … and the way things are shaping up, the Vikes are seeing more and more out ready to loot.
  6. Kansas City Chiefs (4): On the day QB Patrick Mahomes became the fastest player to generate 300 career TDs (282 passing, 18 rushing in 128 games), he also suffered an ankle injury … again. Big decisions ahead for KC, who could rest the three-time Super Bowl MVP … though the Chiefs currently need to win two of their last three games, all against likely playoff teams (Houston, Pittsburgh, Denver), if they want to guarantee that all their players rest in the wildcard round.
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers (7): They haven’t lost in Baltimore in five years. Extend that streak and the Steelers win the AFC North … though it’s become pretty clear they won’t win a whole lot beyond that if they don’t get WR George Pickens back in the lineup.
  8. Baltimore Ravens (8): But if they can finally beat the Steelers at home … they’ll at least secure a playoff spot, but will have more work to do to regain the AFC North perch. But a win could also greatly boost QB Lamar Jackson’s recently failing bid for back-to-back MVP awards … though he’ll have to overcome a 2-5 record and 66.7 career passer rating against Pittsburgh. Maybe bringing in WR Odell Beckham Jr. would help. back?
  9. Los Angeles Rams (10): They have a turnover in their last five games, coincidentally in their lone loss during that span. Barring major injuries, they have to be considered the favorites to win the NFC West at this point.
  10. Denver Broncos (13): Nik Bonitto is the first linebacker since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to score touchdowns covering at least 50 yards in consecutive games — just one indicator of how dominant this defense has become, tied with Philly for the fewest points allowed this season.
  11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14): WR Mike Evans is just the fifth player to catch at least 50 balls in each of his first 11 seasons … and after Sunday’s 159-yard day, he has a fair shot to reach his 11th straight 1,000-yard season, too.
  12. Washington Commanders (9): They’ve been awfully unremarkable since Halloween, but — remarkably — that’s a function of heightened expectations after a 7-2 start. Still, a pretty memorable season for Jayden Daniels, now the fourth rookie quarterback with at least 3,000 yards passing and 500 rushing. He needs 160 more on the ground to pass former Washington star (and 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year) Robert Griffin III at most by a first-year passer.
  13. Houston Texans (15): RB Joe Mixon has averaged fewer than 2 yards per carry. carry in three of the last five games – with 51 carries spread across those three contests. Just one more reason why it’s hard to believe the two-time defending AFC South champs will do much damage in January.
  14. Seattle Seahawks (11): Like the Rams, they win, they win the NFC West. Sunday night, however, underscored how difficult it will be to do if QB Geno Smith can’t post — especially for a team so reliant on the pass and with its last two games on the road.
  15. Arizona Cardinals (16): TE Trey McBride has more receptions (89) than the Cards’ top two wide receivers (Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson) … combined, the two combine for 88 catches. Still, MHJ and Wilson have 11 TD catches, 11 more than McBride has.
  16. Los Angeles Chargers (12): After giving up no more than 20 points in their first nine games, they have allowed at least 27 in three of the past five, including a forty-pounder to the Bucs in Sunday’s loss.
  17. Cincinnati Bengals (17): QB Joe Burrow needs four more TD passes to become the first Bengal to throw 40 in a season … and at his current pace, it will likely happen Sunday.
  18. Atlanta Falcons (21): A lackluster effort over a lackluster opponent with another lackluster performance from QB Kirk Cousins. But a win in Vegas doesn’t stay in Vegas when you can still somehow earn a home playoff game.
  19. San Francisco 49ers (18): They had 191 yards in their most recent loss, their fewest in a regular-season contest since HC Kyle Shanahan was hired in 2017.
  20. Dallas Cowboys (26): While it was suggested most of the season that they couldn’t run the ball, in reality they just didn’t use RB Rico Dowdle enough. After posting his first three 100-yard rushing games over the past three weeks, he’s now on pace for more than 1,300 yards from scrimmage and setting himself up for a nice payday next year.
  21. Indianapolis Colts (19): It’s very tempting to count them out. But their last three opponents (Titans, Giants, Jags) have a combined eight wins, so…
  22. Miami Dolphins (20): Seems like having a player like OBJ would have helped in a must-win affair like Sunday’s?
  23. New England Patriots (22): The league’s worst passing offense has yet to gain 260 yards in a game this year and has failed to break 200 10 times.
  24. Chicago Bears (24): On the losing end of eight straight, QB Caleb Williams is in the midst of the coldest stretch by a rookie quarterback drafted No. 1 overall in the Super Bowl era … except for Troy Aikman, who dropped 11 in a row. with the 1989 Cowboys.
  25. Carolina Panthers (23): Did you know WR Adam Thielen is the fourth undrafted player in the common-draft era (since 1967) with at least 8,000 career yards?
  26. New Orleans Saints (25): RB Alvin Kamara has a chance to join Lydell Mitchell as the only players to lead their team in rushing AND receiving yards on more than one occasion in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
  27. Cleveland Browns (27): Little has gone right this season, but they seem to have at least found a long-term No. 1 receiver in Jerry Jeudy.
  28. New York Jets (28): Very exciting win … over a zombified Jags team on Sunday. And also a reminder of what a difficult rebuild/reset this will be as owner Woody Johnson’s search for his next GM begins in earnest.
  29. Jacksonville Jaguars (30): Brian Thomas Jr. is 44 yards away from being the Jags’ first 1,000-yard rookie receiver. Now if they can only find a way to pair him with Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter …
  30. Las Vegas Raiders (29): With DE Maxx Crosby bowing out for season-ending ankle surgery, there isn’t much to look forward to the rest of the way. But Brock Bowers is now 109 yards shy of the rookie record for a tight end.
  31. Tennessee Titans (31): Still a chance they can clinch the best record in the AFC South … if they sweep their division rivals over the last three weeks. (Yes, silver linings are certainly not easy to find here.)
  32. New York Giants (32): Hard to figure out how QB4 Tim Boyle stays employed – Giants not seeing him play for Jets in 2023? – but this franchise seems determined to make its 100th season the worst.

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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.