NBA Cup 2024: Here are 3 big questions ahead of the Bucks-Thunder championship

On By Littum

We can dispense with the complications now: the inflated point differentials and byzantine tiebreakers, the special planning and alternative playing surfaces, etc. What’s left of Emirates NBA Cup 2024 is all that’s ever left when the game matters most: two teams, with only one game and each other standing between them and a big old gold trophy.

What began as a league-wide effort to inject some flavor into the period between opening night and Christmas Day ends with just two teams fighting for the crown.

Out West: The Oklahoma City Thunder, a two-way juggernaut on pace for 66 wins that posted its fifth straight double-digit win in the semifinals, outscored the Houston Rockets behind stifling defense and a now customary 30-plus-point outing from MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous- Alexander:

And from the east: The Milwaukee Bucks, who have bounced back from a dismal 2-8 start to win 12 of their last 15, advance to the Finals by holding off a spirited attack from the upstart Atlanta Hawks led by Giannis Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP dominated on the interior, finishing with 32 points, 14 rebounds, nine assists and four blocks — none more impressive than denying a potential alley-oop to Hawks center Clint Capela to keep Milwaukee up two scores for late fourth quarter:

Let’s set the stage for what’s sure to be a thrilling conclusion between the tournament’s top seeds by considering three big questions ahead of Tuesday’s NBA Cup championship (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC):

The Thunder only saw Antetokounmpo once last season … and frankly, that was probably more than enough for head coach Mark Daigneault and his staff.

An Oklahoma City rotation filled with smart, opportunistic athletes could get away with playing small against many opponents. However, Giannis is not “a lot of opponents.” He is quite another thing, and primarily defended of players half a foot shorter than he is, he had a field day in March: 30 points on 13-for-18 shooting, with every bucket entering the paint, plus 19 rebounds, eight on the offensive glass, as Milwaukee cruised to a 118-93 win.

(Joseph Raines/Yahoo Sports Illustration)(Joseph Raines/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

(Joseph Raines/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

This Thunder team is built a little differently than last year’s model, but with Chet Holmgren in street clothes rehabbing his broken hip, the matchup questions still loom large. As a member of the Knicks, Isaiah Hartenstein saw some action on Antetokounmpo, but spent most of his time wrestling with Bucks center Brook Lopez, while the likes of Julius Randle and OG Anunoby took the Giannis job. With top point guard Luguentz Dort likely detailed to Damian Lillard, that likely leaves the job to Jalen Williams, all 6-foot of him, who played the 5 last month while Oklahoma City was without proper centers … and who got the bulk of the work in the blowout Bucks win last season.

It might make sense for OKC to play Williams on Antetokounmpo with Hartenstein constantly lurking behind as a helper — similar to the way some opponents have used to guard Nikola Jokić in Denver — and rely on that when Giannis kicks the ball out to find an open teammate, its elite off-ball defenders can play on a string tight enough to hit the necessary rotations and prevent Milwaukee from generating a barrage of wide-open 3s. However, it becomes more difficult in practice when Antetokounmpo’s teammates knock down the triples he creates: The Bucks are tied for the league lead in 3-point percentage over their last 15 matchesand tied for fourth place made triples per gamewith every member of the rotation except for Giannis and the newly returned Khris Middleton drilling at least 38% of their long balls in this stretch. (Here’s where we notice Giannis posting one career-high assist rate and a career-low turnover rateand leads the NBA in passes that lead to 3-pointers.)

Maybe Daigneault juggles perimeter matchups, slides second-year junior Cason Wallace over to Lillard some to free up Dort — only 6-foot-4 but with heavy hands and roughly the density of a cement truck — to give Giannis another look . You can bet Alex Caruso will also get a turn when he checks in from the Thunder bench … and you can bet he’ll give maximum effort when he does:

Oklahoma City isn’t just coming in on Tuesday leading the NBA in points allowed per possessionbut sets a demand which stingiest defense since the ABA-NBA merger. Daigneault’s club exerts constant pressure, forcing turnovers on 19% of opponents’ offensive drives — on pace for the highest opponent’s turnover rate since the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season. The Thunder will need every ounce of that swarming, suffocating, suffocating defensive effort to slow down Giannis – the league’s leading scorera bona fide contender for his third MVP trophy, capable of sending even perhaps the best team in the NBA home from Vegas with a terribly nasty hangover.

The sophomore guard from UConn has earned Doc Rivers’ starting lineup with his athleticism, defensive ability and relentless activity, routinely deployed in the defense an opponent’s most dangerous perimeter weapon.

The 23-year-old is one of just seven players in the entire NBA to rank in the 98th percentile or higher in both average matchup difficulties and perimeter isolation defense, acc The BBall index‘s game overview — a list that includes Dort and breakout defensive threat Dyson Daniels. On the Bucks’ path through the group stage and the knockout stages, Jackson has locked horns Tyrese Haliburton, Tyler Hero, Cade Cunningham and Trae Young.

And now, Milwaukee’s chances of hoisting the NBA Cup may depend on how effectively he handles this naughty guy:

Milwaukee enters the Finals ranked an underwhelming 17th in points allowed per game. possession outside the garbage time, according to Cleaning the glass; since Rivers slid Jackson into the starting five, however, the Bucks are 13. The first step to plugging a leaky defense is limiting dribble penetration from the point of attack, and Jackson’s length, quickness and motor have played a big role in the Bucks getting better at doing that; they have conceded 5.9 fewer points per 100 with Jackson on the floor than outside.

At 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-9 3/4-inch wingspan and 210 pounds, Jackson matches up well with Gilgeous-Alexander physically … which doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything, except that he’ll be able to catch the SGA eye to the eye when he is blown by if he is not careful. Oklahoma City’s offense thrives when it can get the drive-and-kick game humming — beat the first line of defense, force a rotation to stop the ball, hand off to whoever the helper just left open, repeat until you get a good look . Thunder score 103.5 points per 100, one top five markwith Gilgeous-Alexander at the checkwho served as the engine of the NBA’s leading offense drives to the basket per game – for fifth season in -one row.

Like Antetokounmpo on the other end, no individual defender can really keep Gilgeous-Alexander under wraps for a full 48 minutes. Guarding him requires team-wide commitment, discipline, and attention… and even then, he might just be short and thin enough to slide through a keyhole space for a runner, or put a shoulder into your chest to generate enough space for it impossible soft regress on the baseline. However, there is a silver lining to the dark cloud of watchful SGA: Milwaukee was actually one of only five teams to hold him under 20 points last season, limiting him to 12 points on 12 shots with four turnovers in the March blowout.

“They had him in a crowd most of the night and made it very difficult for him to get his cracks,” Daigneault told reporters after the game.

Doing it again will require Jackson to be at the top of his game. If he’s up to the task, Milwaukee’s chances improve significantly; if he isn’t, the Bucks could play dead against the best team in the West.

The Thunder’s defensive philosophy relies on relentless ball pressure in an effort to force turnovers and get their armada of talented young athletes out on the break. It’s no surprise, then, that Oklahoma City ranks eighth in the NBA in average time to shoot, according to Unpredictablegetting a try up within 11.3 seconds of getting the ball on average.

The Bucks, on the other hand, are The NBA’s oldest team; with the exception of Antetokounmpo and Jackson, Milwaukee’s rotation relies more on skill and execution than bounce and explosion. It is therefore no surprise that the Bucks rank 26 in average time to shoot — and second in the proportion of their offensive possessions operating in the half courtrather than in transition. Oklahoma City, on the other hand? Fourth in transition frequency.

If OKC’s Dobermans can wreak havoc, blow up possessions and run away from miscues, that would be bad news for a Bucks team tied for 23rd in points allowed per possession. possession in transition, according to Synergy Sports Technology. It is therefore imperative for Milwaukee to take care of the ball … which means Lillard leading the Bucks in touching and time of possessionmust keep the game on Dame Time instead of OKC’s fast clock.

It won’t be easy to play a clean game with Dort, Wallace and Caruso breathing down his neck, but that’s why Milwaukee went out and got Lillard: to do it when it’s not easy. To provide the kind of metronomic consistency, ceiling-raising shots and cold-blooded finishing that can hold a team steady in the biggest moments and get them over the finish line.

The NBA Cup isn’t the NBA Finals, but it’s what we have right now. Giannis can get the Bucks awfully far on his own; against an opponent as stifling as Oklahoma City, however, he needs his running mate to live up to his billing, keeping the Thunder in check and the game on a tight leash … until it’s time for him to uncord.

The NBA Cup Championship Game is the only one in the entire Emirates NBA Cup tournament that does not also count towards the participants’ regular season records and statistics. For these two teams, it counts as game 83.

Just making the knockout round guaranteed every player on the participating teams a payout; to the winners, however, go bigger spoils, with the tournament champion taking home the biggest pot.

For the opening tournament of the season, the prize pool worked in nice round numbers: $50,000 for each player on teams that lose in the quarterfinals; $100,000 for players on teams that lose in the semifinals; $200,000 for players on the team that loses in the final game; and a cool $500,000 for everyone on the team that hoists the NBA Cup. The math is a little more lopsided this year, thanks to a passage in collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and its players association stipulate that these premium payments increase by a “growth factor” tied to any increase in basketball-related income (BRI) generated by the league.

BRI went up from last season to this one; ergo, then the payoffs have:

(Passed: not quite as pure as all the zeros on last year’s gains. Somehow, though, I don’t think the players will mind.)

Win on Tuesday and you take it all home display window: The NBA Cup and the bragging rights that come with it, plus the prize money of $514,971 for each player. Which, as holiday bonuses go? Pretty decent.