Emirates NBA Cup Championship preview: Thunder, Bucks and a prediction

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LAS VEGAS – A simple way to frame this Emirates NBA Cup final is by age and experience. The Milwaukee Bucks are built around a core of veterans, All-Stars and NBA championship ring bearers. The Oklahoma City Thunder are young and rising, on pace to grab the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed for the second straight season after rising from the ashes of three seasons (64 total games under .500).

But stories and life cycles don’t matter much when the ball goes up Tuesday at T-Mobile Arena (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

There’s a trophy to be won, a big payday for the losers ($205,988 per player), an even bigger one ($514,971) for the winners. And a result that, while it doesn’t count in the regular season standings, could serve as a good gut check now and momentum toward something bigger come spring.

“It just comes down to one game and that’s it,” Milwaukee guard Damian Lillard said Monday. “I don’t think anybody, at least with us, looks at it like, ‘Oh, we’re old and all that, and they’re young.'”

Same for OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

“To be perfectly honest with you, I don’t discriminate between games, who I play against,” he said. “If we’re playing the worst team in the league, the best team in the league, I’m trying to take the head off them.”

It’s the spirit. The Thunder and the Bucks come in as two of the hottest teams in the league, 12-3 in their last 15 games. Gilgeous-Alexander and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo are strong early Kia MVP candidates, positioned to also claim tournament MVP honors with a win.

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How the Thunder have fared in NBA Cup play so far

OKC has been the same team in their Cup run as it was through the first eight weeks of the season, ranking eighth offensively, first defensively and first in net rating. It broke through a generally soft West Group B, beating the Lakers, Jazz and Kevin Durant/Bradley Beal-less Suns.

But the Knockout Rounds offered tests with Dallas and Houston, and the Thunder passed both. They miss Chet Holmgren (broken hip) on the field, but have not fallen; after going 8-2 with Holmgren, they are 12-3 in his absence.

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Difference makers for the Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: He has boosted his scoring average in Cup play, averaging 32.2 points to go with 6.2 rebounds and 6.5 assists while shooting at a 50-40-90 rate in those six games. In the quarterfinals, SGA scored 39 on 15-for-23 accuracy to eliminate Dallas, then had 32 in the semifinals over Houston.

Isaiah Hartenstein: The team’s new big man has been invaluable, averaging 11.5 points on 54.1% shooting and grabbing 11 boards with 2.8 blocks in Cup play. He’s won over Thunder teammates with his screens, passes and ignored individual recognition, all while helping them to a 9-1 record since his injury-delayed start to the season.

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How the Bucks have fared in NBA Cup play so far

The bowl game came at the right time for Milwaukee, which began the season 2-8 and was eager, even desperate, for a renewed focus. The Bucks’ 11th game was their bowl opener against Toronto, which started a 9-1 streak.

With consistent shooting and more aggressive defense, Milwaukee has improved in Cup play to seventh offensively, fifth defensively and second in net rating, compared to 11th, 13th and 14th overall. And they’ve only had veteran wing Khris Middleton in four rusty, minutes-limited games after he missed the first 21 while recovering from offseason ankle surgery.

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Difference makers for the Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo: The Greek freak has scored (32.7 ppg) and shot (61.4%) better than in his two MVP seasons. He’s a fearsome force on both ends (3.8 blocks/steals in Cup play), and with 23, he’s two games shy of tying the NBA record for most consecutive games with at least 20 points on 50% accuracy or better.

Damian Lillard: The point guard has also stepped up his performance in the Cup, averaging 28.2 ppg against 25.7 overall. He and Antetokounmpo are the highest scoring tandem in the NBA, averaging 58.4 points per game. match. Gilgeous-Alexander and teammate Jalen Williams are tied for fourth with 52.4 ppg.

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Head-to-Head record

This is the teams’ first meeting this season, with their two regular season meetings scheduled for Feb. 3 in OKC and March 16 in Milwaukee. They shared a pair last season. The most recent was on April 12, when the Bucks lost on the Thunder’s court without Antetokounmpo or Lillard.

But OKC coach Mark Daigneault felt the Thunder’s loss on March 24 at Fiserv Forum was crucial for his young squad. “They really took it to us and it was a great game for us,” Daigneault said. “It was like water in the face for us. … It really informed us (about) the level of physicality, focus, everything you need to win against a good team.”

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Forecast

Bucks. Since this one is in Vegas, we’ll note that oddsmakers had the Thunder as 4.5-point favorites entering Monday night. Both teams are equally hot – OKC is rolling, Milwaukee is closing out a lot of close games – and the two superstars are as good as they get. As sidekicks, Lillard is capable of outplaying anyone, while Thunder forward Williams is a bit Scottie Pippen-esque. Here’s a wrinkle that could decide it: Milwaukee makes a lot of 3-pointers (38.9% accuracy), while Oklahoma City gives up a lot (44.6% of opponents’ shots come from the arc). If it’s a make night instead of a miss night, Milwaukee wins.

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Steve Aschburner has been writing about the NBA since 1980. You can email him herefind his archive here and follow him on X.

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