White Christmas for Michigan? There is some hope

The question is becoming more frequent. Are we going to have a white Christmas here in Michigan?

Northern Michigan doesn’t usually struggle to have a white Christmas. Southern Michigan is historically on the brink of a white Christmas.

The statistics show that Detroit and Ann Arbor have a white Christmas four out of 10 years. Flint, Saginaw, Bay City and Lansing have a white Christmas half the time. Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo are white at Christmas 60% of the time. Traverse City and northwest Michigan’s snow belts usually have white Christmases three out of four years. The western UP is white at Christmas 90% of the time.

What is the official definition of a white Christmas? In meteorology, we call 1 inch of snow on the ground a white Christmas.

Weather late this week and a weather system right around Christmas Eve even gives southern Michigan a halfway decent shot at a white Christmas.

Temperatures look set to be just a few degrees above freezing on Christmas Day. It won’t get warm enough to quickly melt the little snow we want on the ground.

We will get some snow late this week.

The best computer models show a weather system around Christmas Eve morning. Here is the average surface forecast for Christmas Eve. This type of storm system usually produces 1-3 inches of snow.

While admittedly far in the future, Christmas Day looks dry at the moment. This weekend we will have a good sense of the exact weather for Christmas.

Since afternoon temperatures will be very cold this weekend, staying around freezing just before Christmas, all the snow leading up to Christmas should still be on the ground by Christmas Day.

Our data shows that between now and Christmas there will be 2-5 inches of snow across Michigan.

Finally, here is the very early temperature forecast for Christmas. It’s a mild forecast, but not warm enough for a major meltdown.

I’m starting to feel a little optimistic for at least an inch of snow on the ground by Christmas Day in most of Michigan.

Let’s follow along and hope for a few more centimeters of snow.