White Christmas Forecast 2024 | Weather.com

Wishes for a white Christmas are growing as the holiday gets closer. Recent cold blasts across the eastern half of the US have many hoping the pattern will be favorable for a blanket of snow on Christmas morning, but that may not be the case for much of the lower 48.

So what is a white Christmas? It occurs when there is at least 1 inch of snow on earth Christmas morning. It doesn’t have to snow on the holiday itself for that to happen. A trace of snow doesn’t count either.

Prediction for White Christmas 2024

It’s no surprise that the best chance for at least an inch of snow on the ground by Christmas morning will be in some of the higher elevations in the West.

There’s also a good chance for a white Christmas from North Dakota to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, as well as parts of northern New England.

A colder pattern is expected to return to the eastern half of the United States leading up to Christmas, but a widespread snowstorm does not appear likely. The warmer trend in the West and a storm track farther north closer to the Canadian border may limit snowpack in the region’s lower elevations.

How typical is a white Christmas?

The map below shows the places with a historical chance of a white Christmas in a given year. The odds are based on averages from 1991 to 2020.

There isn’t much territory outside of the Mountain West, the far northern tier, and northern New England where the odds of a white Christmas are higher than 50%.

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Last year, only 17.6% of the lower 48 experienced a white Christmas. This was the lowest percentage since records began in 2003. Outside the higher elevations of the west, there was an area of ​​snow in the central and northern plains and a few patches in the interior Northeast.

In 2022, 53% of the lower 48 experienced a white Christmas, the highest percentage since 2009. Much of the West, Midwest and interior Northeast were covered in snow. This was mostly due to Winter Storm Elliott, which brought widespread snow and bitterly cold temperatures.

On average, about 38% of the Lower 48 have snow on the ground at Christmas, according to 21 years of data collected by NOHRSC. Since 2003, these percentages have varied widely from year to year, from 17.6% in 2023 to a whopping 63% of the contiguous United States in 2009.

Regional historical odds

Let’s take a closer look at various white Christmas statistics, including the annual probability, the number of white Christmases in each city’s historical record, and the last time it happened.

The annual probability is based on data from the National Weather Service from 1991 to 2020.

Northeast

There wasn’t much snow on the ground in the Northeast last Christmas; even areas where a white Christmas is more common like Syracuse and Buffalo had no snow last year.

While there was no snow last year, New York City has seen up to 8 inches on the ground this Christmas (in 1912), and 7 inches is the highest Christmas snow depth in Washington, DC (2009).

New England

A white Christmas was in short supply in New England last year.

Both Burlington, Vermont and Caribou, Maine, had a brown Christmas in 2023, but have had more than 30 inches of snow on the ground in previous Christmases.

The record snow depth in Boston on Christmas morning is 11 inches (1995). Concord, New Hampshire, has measured up to 26 inches on the ground (1970). Boston last had a white Christmas in 2009, while Concord had a few inches on the ground in 2021.

The Midwest didn’t have a white Christmas in 2023 either.

Marquette, Michigan has a 96% chance of a white Christmas, but it didn’t happen last year. It was a mild Christmas with temperatures nearing 60 degrees as far north as Chicago.

Cleveland and Detroit have a peak Christmas snow depth of 13 inches (in 2005 and 1951, respectively). Both last had a white Christmas in 2022.

Deletes

A few white Christmas wishes came true on the plains last year.

Pierre, South Dakota had 2 inches on the ground and 4.2 inches of snow fell during the day. However, Minneapolis and Duluth, Minnesota and Bismarck, North Dakota, where white Christmas is more common, did not have snow last year.

In 2022, Omaha, Nebraska and Kansas City, Missouri had an inch of snow on the ground by Christmas.

West

Parts of the West had a white Christmas last year.

Billings, Montana had an inch of snow on the ground in 2023. Their record Christmas snow depth is 9 inches in 1984.

Seven years ago, Seattle and Portland saw their sixth white Christmas on record. Seattle had 2 inches of snow that Christmas morning.

In Alaska, Anchorage and Fairbanks unsurprisingly saw snow on the ground on Christmas morning last year with 26 inches and 18 inches on the ground, respectively.

Yes, it has happened in the south

Christmas snow isn’t just a northern thing. Some years, parts of the southern United States have marveled at the sight of a white Christmas. But it has been more than 10 years since a white Christmas was held in large parts of the South.

The extensive cold and widespread snow reached as far south as Tennessee in 2022. A trace of snow was reported on the ground in 2022 in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Memphis, Tennessee. The largest Christmas snow depth in Memphis (10 inches) occurred in 1963, while Tulsa’s record is 6 inches in 2009.

In 2020, a white Christmas was observed in Knoxville, Tennessee (2 inches) and Roanoke, Virginia (1 inch). Nashville had a trail of snow on Christmas Day 2020.

Three relatively recent events brought unusual snow cover on Christmas Day to parts of the South:

-In 2009, Oklahoma City had a record snowstorm (13.5 inches), and one of only two recorded white Christmases occurred in Dallas (2 inches).

-In 2004 in Texas, Corpus Christi had a record snowstorm (4.4 inches) and Brownsville (1.5 inches) had its first day of measurable snow since 1895. Brownsville is at the same latitude as Miami, Florida.

-In 1989, a pre-Christmas snowfall was followed by a severe arctic cold snap that brought both Charleston, South Carolina (4 inches) and Savannah, Georgia (2 inches) their only white Christmas. Jacksonville, Florida, missed out on a white Christmas with a day where an inch of snow fell on Christmas Eve morning. It had melted by Christmas Day.

Linda Lam is the lead meteorologist at weather.com. Growing up in Massachusetts, she developed a fascination with winter storms and hurricanes that led her to pursue a career in meteorology.