Manel Kape vs Bruno Silva odds, picks and predictions

On December 15, 2024By Littum

We have a flyweight fight on Saturday between Manel Kape and Bruno Silva, and our UFC expert Tony Satori believes that Kape’s ability to land high volume punches will be the difference in this fight.

December 14, 2024 • 8:30 AM ET

• 4 min reading

Photo by – Imagn Pictures.

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main card features a flyweight bout between ranked contenders Manel Kape and Bruno Silva.

UFC odds have Kape listed as a heavy betting favorite at -380 via BET99, while Silva returns at +280.

Here are my free Cape vs. Silva predictions at tonight’s UFC event at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

Cape vs Silva Prediction and Picks

Match analysis

The steam is heavy on Cape, who enter this match as no. 9 contender in the 125-pound division. I agree with the steam, and there is a lot to like about the 31-year-old with the “Starboy” nickname.

Kape is a high volume puncher who lands at an accurate clip and has also demonstrated solid defense on the feet. He stays out of the way of the heavy shots and has never been knocked out across 26 professional fights.

It’s on the feet where Kape will have an advantage over Silva, who neither throws nor lands at the rates that Kape does, while also defending at a slower rate. Silva’s path to victory is likely on the mat, but I trust Kape’s 73% takedown defense to keep this on the feet, where he will certainly be a step ahead of Silva.

So why isn’t Cape an even bigger favorite? I think he should be, and the only reason he isn’t is because of his three losses across his first seven fights in the UFC.

However, we must look at the circumstances surrounding these losses. The first was his debut against the current champion, Alexandre Pantoja, who is now considered one of the best 125-pounders of all time.

The second loss came immediately after to Matheus Nicolau, who was in the title conversation before his loss to Brandon Royval last year. Also, that fight was a massive steal, considering all 22 media results gave the fight to Cape.

Cape’s last and most recent loss came against Muhammad Mokaev, who, while controversial, is still 12-0 professionally.

The point is that Kape’s three losses are probably why he opened shorter than his current price, but the market adjusts quickly.

Best best analysis

That said, I think we missed the boat on value in Cape’s moneyline odds, but I still see some value in the win market method. Cape’s method of winning odds is as follows:

Decision (-115)
KO/TKO (+275)
Submission (+900)

The long shot here is clearly the submission prop, but that number isn’t wide enough for my taste. Kape is a striker and will prefer to stay on the feet against Silva, who enters this fight with a fighting game plan.

That leaves the door open for Kape to submit after a Silva takedown, but I’m banking on Kape’s 73% takedown defense as well as the fact that Silva has never been submitted professionally other than against a juicy Khalid Taha – a fight, which was later turned into a no-contest.

That leaves the decision and KO/TKO props for Cape, and -115 is too short for me to pass between those two options. Silva is extremely tough and hasn’t been knocked out in nearly a decade, and while Kape is a hard hitter, each of his last two wins have come by decision.

Bookmakers view this match the same way as the match goes to decision support is listed as wide as -170.