Fact or fiction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player back in the NBA Cup

Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest stories in an attempt to determine if trends are more based on fact or fiction moving forward.

(Last week: LeBron James’ Lakers are stuck in the middle)

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Fact or fiction: SGA is the best player back in the NBA Cup

The NBA Cup field is down to four teams. As much as we respect the collection of talent on the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets – and they are good teams (maybe not great championships, but “could win the NBA Cup” well) — the question of who is the best player left in the tournament is two names long.

Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the two favorites to win the NBA Cup MVP, according to BetMGM. They also join Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Dončić and Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokić as favorites to win the league’s regular-season MVP award.

Antetokounmpo is an establishment superstar, a two-time MVP chasing his third. The 30-year-old has been a top-4 MVP candidate since the 2018-19 season, when Gilgeous-Alexander made his NBA debut. Gilgeous-Alexander, runner-up to Jokić for last year’s MVP, is new to this conversation. To even have the discussion, to measure Gilgeous-Alexander against Antetokounmpo, is a credit to the 26-year-old’s progress.

But let’s face it: Who is enjoying the superior season?

Traditionally, there is no clear statistical difference between the two.

• Antetokounmpo (22 games): 32.7 PTS (61/18/61), 11.4 REB, 6.0 AST (3.5 TO), 1.5 BLK, 0.6 STL

• Gilgeous-Alexander (24 games): 30.2 PTS (52/34/86), 5.4 REB, 6.3 AST (2.7 TO), 1.8 STL, 1.0 BLK

The numbers reflect their different styles. Antetokounmpo is a wrecking ball who wreaks havoc at the rim on both ends of the court. Gilgeous-Alexander is a carving knife that cuts lanes on either side of the floor and serves everyone.

If you want to argue that Antetokounmpo’s rebounding is a difference maker here, as is his length on defense, where it can go unnoticed in the box score, I’m with you. I also think Gilgeous-Alexander’s three-level scoring is just as impactful, and he happens to be the driving force of both an elite offense that commits the fewest turnovers per game. game, and an elite defense that forces the most turnovers per match. More on that later.

If we’re fooled, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored or assisted on 1,108 points through his team’s first 24 games. Antetokounmpo has scored or assisted on 1,076 points. And if we run them through our Points Defended metric, Gilgeous-Alexander has saved his team 83 points. Antetokounmpo has saved his 58.

That’s a combined 57-point difference in Gilgeous-Alexander’s favor, enough to make an issue out of Antetokounmpo’s two rest-filled absences this season. (Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to miss a game.)

As for advanced stats, we could argue all day about who leads who in which category.

• Antetokounmpo: 31.5 PER, 63.0 TS%, 37.1 USG%, 3.8 WS, 8.6 BPM, 2.0 VORP

• Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.6 PER, 62.6 TS%, 33.2 USG%, 4.8 WS, 10.2 BPM, 2.6 VORP

For every advanced metric that Gilgeous-Alexander leads Antetokounmpo, you can find one where Antetokounmpo leads Gilgeous-Alexander. If you are asking for my two favorites, Estimated plus-minus and Daily plus-minusGilgeous-Alexander leads both.

I’m not going to lean on this one way or the other. What I find interesting is this: Gilgeous-Alexander has a significantly lower usage rate than Antetokounmpo, but significantly more win shares — the league’s most, in fact. What does that say about their team? And what do their teams say about each one’s impact?

Everyone understands that the Thunder (19-5) is a better team. They lead a stacked Western Conference by 2.5 games. The Bucks (13-11) are fighting to maintain a guaranteed playoff seed in the weaker Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City is outscoring its opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions this season, a margin that would be second in NBA history behind Michael Jordan’s 72-win Chicago Bulls (13.4). Milwaukee’s net rating (1.1) rose just north of zero in recent weeks as it pitched an easy schedule.

The Thunder are 11-5 against teams with winning records. The Bucks are 3-8 against teams .500 or better.

By extension of a comparison this close, it should follow that Gilgeous-Alexander’s teammates are better than Antetokounmpo’s. And I think that is true for the most part. But we shouldn’t discredit Milwaukee.

Damian Lillard is an eight-time All-Star. Khris Middleton is a three-time All-Star who only recently returned to the rotation. Brook Lopez is a one-time All-Star who has consistently competed for All-Defensive recognition in recent years. AJ Green is a flamethrower. Bobby Portis finished third in last year’s sixth Man of the Year voting. Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright were hailed for low salaries. Milwaukee is not without talent to lead, although it is best recognized for past achievements.

Not so in Oklahoma City, where Jalen Williams is only now realizing his All-Star potential, as Chet Holmgren was before a broken pelvis. Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are All-Defensive caliber complements. Thunder’s flamethrower is Isaiah Joe. They are rich with developmental success stories throughout the roster, and they have the draft capital to upgrade whenever and wherever they choose.

It should also follow that Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder are better without him than Antetokounmpo’s Bucks are without him. And this is where the wicket gets sticky. Oklahoma City is 12.9 points per 100 meaningful possessions better when its superstar is on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. Milwaukee is four points per 100 possessions better when its superstar is on the court.

Antetokounmpo is a champion. Don’t forget. He has a handful of his championship teammates and traded one of his best for Lillard. We can debate the merits of trading Jrue Holiday for Lillard, but in terms of pedigree, the Bucks have it in spades. The culture is on shaky ground, cycling through coaches, losers of three straight playoff series, though injuries may be to blame. Either way, we know who the Bucks are withering around Antetokounmpo, unless the rest of this tournament can change our minds.

Conversely, there is no certified future Hall of Famer for Gilgeous-Alexander to share his burden. Thunder finds out on his own in real time and they watch him. Case in point: Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 51% of the Thunder’s points in the clutch this season, as opposed to Antetokounmpo, who scores 27% of the Bucks’ points when the score is within five points in a game’s final minutes.

We also know who Antetokounmpo is: a bully. He scores 79% of his points either within 3 feet or at the free throw line and prefers the former. Opponents are leaving him open outside of the restricted area, where he’s shooting 42% on 8.3 attempts per game. match. That’s 0.86 points per possession. You can build a wall opposite Antetokounmpo. He will find his way through, but you can hold him off long enough to win.

That’s why the Bucks chased Lilllard to balance the floor from what Antetokounmpo’s wall had created. What had been a top-five offense under former Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer has turned into a middle ground in two of the past three seasons, including this one, as opposing defenses have solved that conundrum.

I just don’t think you can slow down Gilgeous-Alexander the same way, at least not yet. If you could, Williams wouldn’t be that good. Neither would Holmgren or anyone at Torden. Because Gilgeous-Alexander can score from all levels, the defense never leaves him free. They need to keep him from getting to the rim (where he also shoots 73%), keep him from the midrange and respect his 3-point jump shot.

The only way to slow him down is if he slows himself down, which he will often do because the game is played at his pace. There’s no tactic he can’t pull off that doesn’t involve a double team. Both Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander will still reach their spots; it’s just that Gilgeous-Alexander has more places to go.

Determination: Fact. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player back in the NBA Cup.