UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley expert panel, best game

Joaquin Buckley looks to win his sixth straight fight when he takes on former UFC interim welterweight champion Colby Covington in the main event of UFC Fight Night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, tipping at 7 p.m. on ESPN2/ ESPN+).

Buckley (20-6), ESPN’s no. 9-ranked welterweight, hasn’t lost since December 2022. Most recently, Buckley beat Stephen Thompson by third-round knockout at UFC 307 in October. Covington (17-4), no. 8 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, is coming off a loss to Leon Edwards in a welterweight title challenge in December 2023. Covington has lost three of his last five fights.

Brett Okamoto spoke with MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other exciting bets he likes on the card.

Editor’s note: Answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Welterweight: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley

Alan Jouban, MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight

How Covington wins: Covington’s last fight made me feel like he was done. He didn’t do any of the things that we know he does. Usually Covington shoots for takedowns early, and I loved that about him because even if his opponent stopped a takedown in the first 90 seconds, they knew there were five more of them coming each round. Against Edwards, he didn’t land his first takedown until the third round, throwing these slow kicks instead of using his boxing to get takedowns. To win this fight, he needs to do everything he didn’t do against Edwards. I don’t see Covington finishing Buckley, so drag him out in deep water, use that pace and take risks striking for takedowns.

How Buckley wins: Buckley’s grappling is underrated. He entered the UFC as a striker, but recently he has been knocking everyone down. Against Nursulton Ruziboev, Buckley took him down repeatedly and was unfazed by the threat of submissions. Buckley’s fight IQ has improved so much – he makes all the right moves now. No one will expect Buckley to come in to break, but I think he will lead Covington to the fence, which could create an opportunity to slam Covington into the ground. I think he is in the right mental and technical space to do it.

X factor: Buckley’s physicality. He looks great at 170 pounds. And he is only 30 years old. While Covington can take him down with the more technical wrestling, Buckley has the physicality to just say, “Get away from me” and explode.

Forecast: Buckley wins. I have a hard time saying he’ll finish Covington because if Covington fights Buckley like he fought Edwards, it’s hard to finish someone who doesn’t take any risks. Covington needs to be aggressive to win, but being too aggressive increases the chances of him getting knocked out.

Bet analysis

Odds accurate from publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Buckley to win (-290), over 1.5 rounds. This is a tough fight for Covington. Not only has he not improved in any area of ​​his game, but he also recently left his team and is essentially coaching on his own. It’s not the best situation when you have to go up against a fighter like Buckley. We already know what Covington will do – push forward at a menacing pace and try to fight Buckley for five rounds to a decision. But if we know it, so does Buckley. Buckley has good takedown defense and with Covington’s lack of striking I expect Buckley to stuff the takedowns and keep this fight on the feet where he will have the advantage. If you want to keep it simple, take the money line and make Buckley the anchor of your parlay. If you want better odds, take Buckley to win and over 1.5 rounds.

Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card

Light Heavyweight: Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby wins (+250). This bet is a value play as I don’t think the odds make any sense. Petrino is coming off a first-round loss to Anthony Smith, yet is a 3-to-1 favorite over a veteran fighter who is the better striker. Jacoby is coming off a knockout loss to Dominick Reyes, but Reyes is a much better fighter than Petrino and someone who has fought the best in the world. Jacoby is the more talented forward here with a more versatile game. I’ll take it to plus money over Petrino’s power.

Women’s Flyweight: Miranda Maverick Vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth

Maverick wins inside the distance. Not to be disrespectful, but this will be the easiest matchup of Maverick’s UFC career thus far. There is nowhere in this fight that Horth is better than Maverick, so I expect a dominant performance here. I have no worries about Horth only having one loss and never being finished because she has never fought at this level of competition.

Strawweight: Josefine Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez

Knutsson wins (-240). More than likely, this is a win-or-go-home spot for Rodriguez. She has two losses in a row where she was finished by submission and disqualified for headbutts – not the best look. Knutsson is much better on his feet and just as good as Rodriguez on the ground. I would look at taking the Knutsson moneyline as a leg in a parlay to avoid having to bet on a method to win. But if you want better odds, Knutsson by decision would be the way to go.