Favorites to win 2024 FCS National title, ranked 8-1

The 2024 FCS playoffs continue into the quarterfinals this weekend.

Who are the best contenders to win the national title? Who are the longshots?

Each week I will rank my favorites to win the national championship out of the remaining teams in the field. This roster will be whittled down from 24 to 16 to eight to four and then it’s national title time.

The order of teams takes bracket positioning and matchups into consideration when analyzing how far a team can advance. It is not an exact ranking of the best teams 1-8.

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8. #7 seed Mercer

The least likely quarterfinal upset appears to be Mercer at NDSU. The Bears, stylistically, can’t find much success in NDSU’s defense. And while the Bears are legitimate in their run defense, it will be difficult to slow down Cam Miller.

7. #6 seed UIW

UIW pressured SDSU earlier this year before losing 45-24. Now the Cardinals will get another chance this weekend. The cold may affect UIW, but it won’t to cold in Brookings for a mid-December game. SDSU is rolling right now and UIW is a three-score underdog here.

6. #8 seed Idaho

Idaho has a big uphill battle in the quarterfinals, traveling to Montana State, where the Vandals lost 38-7 earlier this year. QB Jack Layne is back plus a fresher defensive line should make this a closer game. But the odds aren’t favorable for Idaho in this one. Not against this motivated MSU team in front of a raucous crowd.

5. #5 seed UC Davis

4. #4 seed South Dakota

Full disclosure, I have UC Davis pulling off a win on the road. But the Coyotes are ahead of the Aggies in these rankings because they are about a 3.5 point favorite this week. And if USD were to win, it would match up better with Montana State than UC Davis, at least on paper. It should be a great game in Vermillion. And the winner can (probably) push Montana State next week. But winning in Bozeman is the hardest road to reach Frisco.

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3. #2 seed NDSU

2. #3 seed SDSU

I changed no. 2 and 3 here. SDSU looks like a more complete team than NDSU in recent games. The Jackrabbits are playing as well defensively as last year’s historic unit, and their offense has been humming in comparison to the erratic first half of the season. However, the Bison will get elite QB play from Cam Miller. And their defense, while inconsistent and leaky recently, matched up well against SDSU earlier this year. Plus, a potential (and likely) semifinal game would be in the Fargodome. And that spot would be in early dynasty form if this semifinal matchup were to happen. Still, SDSU led for most of the second half in the regular-season matchup in Fargo, a game that NDSU poured everything into physically and emotionally. An inch here or there, a makeable but missed play here or there in the passing game, and the Jacks would have won. SDSU looks to hit these plays now. This isn’t my firm pick if SDSU goes to NDSU next week, but the odds may favor the Jacks a bit. The national title odds already favor SDSU over the Bison.

1. #1 seed Montana State

The Cats have been locked in all season. While they have the 1-0 mentality, give them truth serum and they’ll admit that they know this is the best chance for this program to win a national title in decades. MSU’s offense looks like the best in the FCS and the defense is playing at a high level. With home field advantage, it’s hard to see anyone going into Bozeman and winning. And in Frisco, we’ll see what the matchup is. Cats may match up better against NDSU than SDSU. Either way, this team looks set to win it all. Many of those seniors were big parts of the 2021 run to a national title game and the 2022 semifinal run as freshmen and sophomores. They then experienced one of the biggest down seasons in 2023, exiting the playoffs in the second round in excruciating fashion, with the dynasty’s NDSU program on their heels before losing on a blocked PAT. One could argue how last season ended ignited a fight for this MSU program to fulfill its potential this year. While MSU fans enjoyed the deep playoff runs in 2021 and 2022, there was also a thought of, “Man, in 2024, when all these guys are seniors, something special could happen.” Something special may actually be brewing in the next month.