Boise State deserves a College Football Playoff first-round bye

On By Littum

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Forget about random measurements and data points and the eye test, the catch of the moment a la carte for the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Boise State has beaten them all.

No. 10 Broncos made it very easy for the committee with Friday night’s 21-7 win over No. 19 UNLV to the Mountain West Conference championship. They left no doubt.

The Broncos has 12 wins. They have won a conference championship. Their two wins against the Rebels are more wins against College Football Playoff top 25 teams than any of the four teams playing in the Big 12 and ACC championship games.

They’ve hit every moving target by committee — including the best loss of anyone in the field — and left no doubt: they deserve one of the four first-round byes to the top-ranked conference champions.

Do the right thing, College Football selection committee. Give the Broncos a first-round bye.

This isn’t about Ashton Jeanty’s remarkable, Heisman Trophy-worthy season. Or the biggest win in school history.

This is about a program that for the past two decades has pushed for the BCS and CFP postseasons and for one reason or another never made it. Now that the Broncos have hit every moving CFP metric, there’s no getting around it.

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If Boise State doesn’t happen to receive a bye, a top-eight finish — guaranteeing a first-round home game — is a lock. At this point, it’s impossible for the committee to use Boise State’s conference schedule against it when the committee hasn’t used Indiana and Penn State’s weak conference schedules against them. Or even SMUs.

No matter what happens Saturday, Boise State will have more wins than the Big 12 champion (Arizona State or Iowa State), and only SMU can reach 12 wins from the ACC.

And since the CFP committee doesn’t focus on strength of schedule and has clearly favored wins over anything else (hello, Indiana), we’re left comparing losses. No one in the nation has a better loss than Boise State, which lost to No. 1 in Oregon on the final play of the game.

The Ducks needed a punt return for a touchdown, a kickoff return for a touchdown and a game-winning field goal to secure a controversial victory. Officials stayed at the call on the field that Oregon’s Noah Whittington didn’t drop the football until he crossed the end zone (when he clearly did) to tie the game at 34, and later in the fourth quarter, the game-winning drive included a questionable pass interference penalty that moved the ball to the Boise State 28.

The best win among the other four teams from the ACC and Big 12 is a win over Brigham Young for Arizona State. It is the only ranked win of the four schools. One win off Sun Devils against Iowa State would match Boise State’s two wins ranked wins.

Above all these metrics and data points: Boise State began the week five spots ahead of No. 15 ASU, and six places ahead of no. 16 Iowa State. Only SMU, as no. 8, is ahead of the Broncos — but SMU’s win over Clemson would be the first.

There is no way out of this now for the committee. They have wrapped themselves up.

The only answer is the easy one: Give Boise State a first-round bye.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for the USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.