Buffalo Bills: This year marks the team’s best chance for a Super Bowl victory to date

CNN
—

I have been a Buffalo Bills fan for as long as I can remember. I’ve lived through a nearly 20-year playoff drought—I used to say the Bills haven’t made the playoffs since before my bar mitzvah.

Now, the Bills are in the midst of a historic run behind future Hall of Fame quarterback Josh Allen, but they haven’t won a Super Bowl. That’s why every week until they win a Super Bowl in February (which I will), I will keep what I call a journal.

Mostly this column will be a statistical analysis of why I think they will go all the way, as well as a reference or two to past memories.

Let’s start very simply: the Bills have never had as good a chance to win a Super Bowl the past few seasons as they have now.

I’m not making this up as a homer – it’s statistically true. New York Times playoff simulator gives the Bills a 20% chance to finally hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the time of publication. The Bills’ chances have never been higher at this point in the season dating back to when Allen first led the team to the playoffs in 2019.

At the most basic level, the team is 10-2. No Bills team this century has had a better record through 12 games. They also won the AFC East this past week; no franchise has won a division title this early since the league expanded the season to 17 games a few years ago.

Last year, you may recall, the Bills only won the division in the final game of the season down in Miami. They had to bounce back from 6-6 on the campaign.

The two times the Bills came close to having a similar record to what they have now during the Josh Allen era were 2020 and 2022.

In 2020, they were 9-3 before going winless the rest of the season. However, that team was incredibly lucky. Through 12 games in the seasontheir point difference – the points they scored vs. gave up – was only 27 points. This year, the Bills are outscoring their opponents by 131 points after their 12th game.

When the Bills win, they usually win by a lot. Only three of their wins have been by one score (eight points or less). Often they blow teams out, like when they crushed the San Francisco 49ers 35-10 last week.

Their 131-point difference is first in the AFC with 59 points and second in the NFL behind the Super Bowl contending Detroit Lions.

Now, point differential isn’t everything (Kansas City Chiefs in 2023, for example), but it’s one of the stats most predictive of playoff success.

Consider that the team that finished second in point differential at the end of the season has made it to the Super Bowl more than 40% of the time. The team that finished second in point differential has won the Super Bowl just under 30% of the time.

I think most Bills fans would take about a 30% chance to win the Super Bowl right now.

Sure, we’ve seen a recent Bills team finish second in point differential and fail to produce: 2022. The 2022 squad was 9-3 and then also went 10-3 – slightly worse than this 2024 squad is currently.

At this point in the season, however, the 2022 team was struggling. After winning their average game by 15 points through October, the best they could manage in the five games leading into Week 14 was an average victory of four points.

However, the 2024 team is underway. The Bills are averaging a 14-point win in their last five games heading into Week 14.

That 2024 stretch includes two or more wins over two division leaders: the Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks.

The bottom line is that the Bills have looked very good. I dare say they make me want to scream and shout (and maybe let it all out).

The obvious answer here would be Allen’s touchdown reception, but that would be too easy.

Instead it is this forced fumble by Taylor Rapp and recovery by Christian Benford.

Why?

First of all, it demonstrates a “bend, don’t break” defense tremendously. The Bills tighten up near the goal line, even as they allow other teams to get close to the goal line.

Second, I’m always afraid the Bills will lose. It was at this moment that I realized the Niners would never get within two scores the rest of the ballgame.

Unfortunate memory enters…

I will keep it short. A few years ago, for some reason, I agreed to appear on late Sunday afternoon television. I thought the Bills game would be over at that point.

Instead, I had just enough time to watch the Bills make a great goal line drive against the Minnesota Vikings. When I rode the elevator and couldn’t see play, Allen fumbled the ball with under a minute remaining at the Bills own goal line.

If the Bills hadn’t fumbled, they would have just run out the clock by kneeing the ball. Instead, the Vikings eventually won in overtime.

It’s the only game in the last 20 years where a team led with under a minute left, didn’t need to gain another first down to run out… and lost.

Needless to say, I hope it never happens again.