Tennessee football needs help hosting the CFP game at Neyland Stadium

On December 5, 2024By Littum

Tennessee’s last hope of hosting a College Football Playoff game hinges on a blowout in the SEC or Big Ten title games.

The Vols would likely need Georgia or Penn State to lose by wide margins in their conference championship games to keep the option open.

No. 2 Texas (11-1) meets no. 5 Georgia (10-2) in the SEC championship game on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, ABC). No. 1 Oregon (12-0) plays against no. 3 Penn State (11-1) in the Big Ten championship game on Saturday (8 p.m., CBS).

But even if those blowout losses did occur, the CFP selection committee might not drop the losing teams behind Tennessee in the rankings. Committee chairman Warde Manuel, however, left the door slightly open for that possibility.

“It depends on the outcome of the game as we watch the game and the results of the game and the result whether teams will move above (or) below other teams that are ranked in the Top 25,” Manuel said on a CFP teleconference with reporters, after that the ranking list was published on Tuesday evening.

“I can’t tell you the answer because as a committee we haven’t seen the results of the (championship) games.”

Here’s where Tennessee ranks and where it wants to go

Tennessee is ranked No. 7 in the updated CFP poll. It corresponds to seed no. 9, because two lower-ranked conference champions automatically get byes in the first round.

Tennessee (10-2) is set to play at No. 8 seed Ohio State (10-2) in a first round, but the tension is not set yet.

The final playoff picks and matchups will be announced on Sunday (noon, ESPN). And the Vols must move up a spot to host a first-round game.

Manuel said the only possible movement in the rankings would happen because of conference championship games. Here’s how it could help Tennessee land a home playoff game at Neyland Stadium, even if the odds aren’t great.

Georgia’s win over Tennessee doesn’t lock in the rankings

In order for Tennessee to jump ahead of Georgia, the selection committee must minimize the importance of a head-to-head result.

Georgia beat Tennessee 31-17 on Nov. 16 in Athens. But Manuel declined, saying the head-to-head win would ensure Georgia would finish ahead of Tennessee in the rankings if they lost to Texas.

“There are more things we’re considering, more data points, the strength of schedule. There’s all kinds of data that we’re looking at to evaluate,” Manuel said. “It’s not one statistic or one data point that determines how we rank the teams.

“We’ll see how the (SEC championship) game goes, and we’ll definitely rank them when we see the results of the game, again, with a lot of respect for the teams that earned the championships.”

If Penn State lost, its resume could be scrutinized

For Tennessee to jump ahead of Penn State, it requires the Nittany Lions to take a big drop in the rankings.

If Oregon won the Big Ten title in one round, it would highlight a weakness on Penn State’s resume. The Nittany Lions have just one win over a Top 25 team, and that was over the no. 21 in Illinois.

Tennessee beat Alabama No. 11 for his best win.

Manuel said teams will be given credit for making their conference championship game. But the result of the game will take into account the final ranking.

“The committee has coaches, athletic directors (and) former players who have played the game,” said Manuel, the Michigan athletic director who played for the Wolverines in the 1980s.

“We have a lot of respect for the teams that make their championship runs and we give them a lot of credit for what they’ve done throughout the season. But we’ve been asked by the commissioners to rank the Top 25 for the end of the championship weekend , and so we have an obligation to take a look at those data points and the results of those games.”

Here’s a twist: The Vols could play at Penn State

There might be a better chance of Penn State hosting Tennessee in a first-round game if it loses to Oregon.

Penn State lost to Ohio State, 20-13, in the regular season. The committee may consider dropping the Nittany Lions behind the Buckeyes. If so, Penn State would be the No. 8 seed and host no. 9 seed Tennessee.

There are several scenarios that could still play out for the Vols. But their path to hosting a game will be narrow.

Fortunately, Tennessee is ranked high enough that it is certain to make the 12-team playoff. But the time, place and opponent are still unknown for its first-round games.

All first round games will be played at the campus grounds, including one game on December 20th and three games on December 21st.

The quarterfinals will be at the bowl sites: Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31), Peach Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl (Jan. 1), Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1). The semifinals will be at the Orange Bowl (January 9) and the Cotton Bowl (January 10). The national championship game will take place on January 20 in Atlanta.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. E-mail [email protected]. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing knoxnews.com/subscribe.

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