France’s government looks on the brink of collapse. What’s next?

PARIS (AP) — France’s minority government appeared to be in his last hours Tuesday, as opposition lawmakers from the left and far right vowed to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s cabinet.

ONE vote of no confidence is scheduled for Wednesday in parliament in the wake of a divisive budget debate with a high chance of success.

If the proposal is adopted, Barnier’s cabinet would be the shortest-lived government in France’s modern history, marking an unprecedented period of political instability.

President Emmanuel Macron would be in charge of appointing a new prime minister.

Why is the situation so unstable?

Follow the June-July parliamentary electionsThe National Assembly, France’s powerful lower house of parliament, is divided into three major blocs: a left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front, Macron’s centrist allies and the far-right National Rally party. No one got a clear majority.

In September, Macron asked Barnier, a conservative, to form a government dominated by republicans and centrists – implicitly dependent on the goodwill of the far right to stay in power.

However, far-right leader Marine Le Pen now says her party will vote to topple the government and accuses Barnier of ignoring her demands.

Meanwhile, the left-wing coalition condemns an “austerity budget” and criticizes the “absence of dialogue and disregard for parliamentary work.”

The National Assembly said the no-confidence motion requires a majority vote to pass – or at least 288 out of 574 lawmakers currently.

Together, the left wing and the extreme right wing count over 330 legislators – but some may abstain from voting.

What if the government falls?

On Wednesday, the first vote of no confidence could succeed in over six decades.

If the government falls, Macron can ask outgoing ministers to take charge of current affairs pending the appointment of a new prime minister.

The broken composition of the Parliament would remain the same. New parliamentary elections cannot be held before July because, according to the French constitution, the National Assembly must remain in place for a minimum of one year.

No favorite figure to replace Barnier has yet emerged. Macron could choose a politician from his center alliance, French media reports.

New People’s Front asks that a left-wing cabinet be appointed instead.

Some opposition lawmakers are calling for Macron to step down, but the French president has previously ruled out that possibility.

What about the budget?

France is without risk for one government shutdown that in the United States would disrupt many services and pressure federal employees.

An outgoing government could present a special law to collect tax from 1 January based on this year’s rules. It will also be able to decide to renew spending by decree to pay civil servants, pensions and other important public expenses.

However, this would suspend any potential tax increase – such as one originally expected on large corporations – and freeze any new spending.

In particular, an additional package of 3.3 billion euros ($3.5 billion) was planned for the French military as it supports Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Later, a new government could present its own financial bills in the Norwegian Parliament.

Why are the markets spooked?

In a last-ditch attempt to save his government, Barnier warned of ” a great storm and very severe turbulence in the financial markets.”

France is under pressure from the EU’s executive body to reduce its colossal debt. The country’s deficit is estimated to reach 6% of gross domestic product this year, and analysts say it could rise to 7% next year without drastic adjustments.

The political instability could push up French interest rates and dig the debt further.

Moreover, without a clear parliamentary majority, no major reform appears within reach of a new government.

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This version corrects the number of votes needed for the motion of no confidence to pass with the National Assembly’s latest figures.