Fantasy Premier League: What we learned from Gameweek 12 – Salah and the budget forward shine

An extraordinary weekend of football saw Manchester City lose an unprecedented three league games in a row as they were beaten 4-0 in their own backyard by Tottenham Hotspur – and Erling Haaland (£15.1m) blank again. He has scored two goals in his last eight league games.

Meanwhile Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) scored two in his side’s 3-2 win at Southampton, which took Liverpool eight points clear at the top of the league, and his Fantasy Premier League returns to 10 goals and six assists this season.

From Gameweek 10 to Gameweek 12 (so far), if you had captained Haaland, you would have scored 18 points. In the same period, if you had captained Salah, you would have collected 72 points from the Egyptian. That’s a difference of 56 points – a tough swing, but that’s FPL for you.

Gameweek 12 concludes today with Newcastle United hosting West Ham United (20:00 GMT; 15:00 ET), but here we’ll cover the main FPL talking points from the weekend’s action.

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It’s not just Haaland – Manchester City players just aren’t worth it

It is not only Haaland who has struggled. Manchester City have really been out of sorts and it seems less of a blip and more of a bigger problem. They have lost their last five games in all competitions, the first time this has happened in Pep Guardiola’s career.

I think that first of all we need to talk about Haaland again. If you still have the Norwegian, I think the move for Salah is a good move and it’s a good week to do it as they face Liverpool (A) next. He is simply too expensive and the money you save can really help your overall squad.

Plus, City are probably in the worst form they’ve ever been in under Guardiola and are nowhere near the tough matchup they usually are.

It is time to move away from any of their assets. They have kept just two clean sheets this season with an xGC (expected goals conceded) of 15.5 (10th best in the Premier League).

With Liverpool, Manchester United and Aston Villa in their next five games, I don’t see many clean sheets.

If you have Josko Guardiol (£6.3m) or Rico Lewis (£4.8m)I’d like to hand them to Arsenal defenders.

Arsenal’s defense is worth your attention

Arsenal beat Nottingham Forest 3-0 at home and are clearly a much better attacking team Martin Odegaard (£8.2m) in their starting XI.

I would really look to target their assets in the coming weeks, especially from their defence. They have conceded 12 goals (third fewest in the league) with an xGC of 12.3 (second best). They are still the best defense in the league and will likely keep the most clean sheets at the end of the season.

They also have good inventory on the horizon, and a double-up in defense is a good shout and will be a nice difference.

Gabriel (£6.1m) and William Saliba (£6.0m) are the most nailed and should play every game during the busy festive period. But if you’re strapped for cash, then Jurrien Timber (£5.5m) is a good buy.

With Ben White (£6.2m) ruled out “for a few months” by his manager after undergoing surgery and Takehiro Tomiyasu (£4.8m) still out, Timber should get an extended spell in the starting XI. Mikel Arteta has used Thomas Partey (£5.0m) as a temporary right-back recently, but I can’t imagine this happening again with Timber fit.

Bukayo Saka (£10.2m) is the one to go for in attack and I will look to get him in as soon as possible. He now has four goals and eight assists this season and is Arsenal’s clear talisman. As long as he stays fit, he’s exactly the reliable type of player you want over the next few months.

It is cheap forwards that rule

We have a number of good forward options this season, but the two that should be at the top of our list are Matheus Cunha (£6.9m) and Joao Pedro (£5.6m).

The former is now the second highest scoring striker in the match with seven goals and three assists. The Wolves man is on a good run of games, then plays Bournemouth (H), Everton (A), West Ham (A), Ipswich (H) and Leicester City (A).

He is the most nailed striker for his team and could very well be their first-choice penalty taker.

Meanwhile, Brighton’s Joao Pedro has been eased into the last two games after returning from injury, but that hasn’t stopped him from getting a couple of double-figure hauls. He has two goals and two assists since his return and, at his price, looks almost decisive – especially if you watch the game coming up.

Fabian Hurzeler’s side play Southampton (H), Fulham (A), Leicester (A), Crystal Palace (H), West Ham (A) and Brentford (H) in their next six.

Joao Pedro played 63 minutes in Brighton’s 2-1 win at Bournemouth on Saturday and should get more minutes going forward. The Brazilian is also his club’s first-choice penalty taker.

Both Cunha and Pedro are also good options if you have Haaland and want to switch to Salah.

Take your time before going after Manchester United players

Ruben Amorim’s first game in charge of Manchester United ended in a 1-1 draw. He couldn’t have asked for a better start Marcus Rashford (£6.9m) opened the scoring in the first minutes. It wasn’t so good after that as Ipswich equalized and had the better chances. There will be a transition period, but his formation at Portman Road has given us an indication of how he plans to line up.

Rashford played as no. 9, with Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m) and Alejandro Garnacho (£6.4m) make up the front trio in a 3-4-3.

Amad (£4.9m) played at right wing-back and although he played well and made a good run to set up the first goal, this position does not bode well for his FPL prospects.

Fernandes dropped deep again when Amorim came on Joshua Zirkee (£6.6m) and Rasmus Højlund (£6.9 million) and this isn’t ideal FPL-wise as you’d prefer him closer to goal, but he should still get plenty of minutes in the front three.

Going forward, this is the formation the manager is likely to play, but the only outfielder really beaten is Fernandes. Rashford should keep his place after his goal but he has competition in that position so he could be one for the future.

In this system there could be good value options – including Rashford if he continues up front as he is classified as a midfielder in FPL – but overall United’s assets should be avoided until we see an improvement.

They have decent play from Gameweek 17 onwards so we could re-evaluate them at that point.

(Top photo: Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)