Alabama vs. CFP bid-thieves, plus a coaching carousel catch-up

On By Littum

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College Football December Madness has begun. The playoffs, coaching carousel, national signing day and transfer portal are all in action. We will catch up with most of them today.

Ranking review

How Bama could still miss the common fisheries policy

The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings were released yesterday. Here’s what the post would look like from now on, heading into this final Saturday:

The first one out? Miami, long the 4 seed in these projected brackets fell out of the field after losing its season finale to Syracuse. The Hurricanes also lost their ACC title, and face SMU and Clemson in Charlotte this weekend.

Who is there? Alabama jumped back into the picture for a big bid. The three-loss Crimson Tide is ranked No. 11 by committee, which would give them the 11 seed with a first-round matchup at Notre Dame.

Committee chairman Warde Manuel said yesterday that the committee will not rearrange teams not playing this weekend, but Alabama enters championship weekend on thin ice. All that’s left for the Crimson Tide to do is sit at home and hope someone doesn’t play bid thieves. Speaking of…

Bud-thieves to watch: The committee finally settled things by giving SMU a potential 3-seed and first-round bye. But that depends on the Mustangs proving it this weekend. Clemsonranked 17th by the committee, would enter with a win in the ACC Championship. That could put Alabama — or even SMU, though it would break from the committee’s tradition of limiting the penalty for losing conference title games — in jeopardy.

In the mountain west, UNLVranked 20th by the committee (second highest among G5 teams), must beat Boise State for the conference championship and a playoff berth. Incidentally, it is only a four-point spread at BetMGM. If that happens, current no. 10 Boise, whose only current loss is by three at No. 1 Oregon, still at large?

Best hypothetical first-round matchup: 9-seed Tennessee at 8-seed Ohio State. What happened to the Buckeyes after last week’s devastating loss to The Team Up North? They dropped four spots in the rankings and are in position to be the lowest seeded first round host.

This week, that would line them up with the Vols. Tennessee and Ohio State have only met once before, in the 1996 Citrus Bowl with Buckeyes Heisman-winning RB Eddie George and Tennessee sophomore QB Peyton Manning. The Vols won 20-14.

After all, if Ohio State won this bracket, it would get that rematch with Oregon. And could we really get three rounds of Texas vs. Georgia?

Read more analysis here.

Happy early signing day!

Yes, it is earlier than usual

With conference championships this weekend and the first-ever 12-team CFP just around the corner, it’s easy to forget that today is the beginning of college football’s early signing period. Texas leads in 247Sports Composite Class Rankingsand no. 1 recruit, QB Bryce Underwood, recently flipped from LSU to Michigan.

Here are three broader things you need to know to prepare, and also read Antonio Morales’ full signing day here:

  • Is it earlier than usual? Yes. Last March, the Collegiate Commissioners Association chose to move the period from the third Wednesday in December to the first in an effort to clear up a crowded December calendar (coaching carousel, postseason prep, transfer portal, etc.).
  • What happened to national declarations of intent? The Division I council agreed to do away with them and move forward with “written offers of athletic aid.” In theory, it’s supposed to protect programs from prospects turning right up until enrollment. But according to recruiters, it just results in less paperwork.
  • Be prepared for changes: There have already been more than 500 releases this recruiting cycle, according to a 247Sports database. So how exactly does a flip happen? As Grace Raynor learned in discussions with players, coaches and recruiters, the art of flipping includes a lot of language more common in the dating world. “You invest so much time that when they turn, it’s almost like a breakup,” said one Big Ten recruiter. Read the whole story here.

Coaching carousel update

Grading of the newest openings

There have been 20 FBS head coaching openings this cycle, five of which have been filled. Here is a running list from Tuesday night:

And here are my grades for each Power 4 opening as a destination:

North Carolina: B+ (Full job profile)

  • Who’s out? Mack Brown after his second stint with the Tar Heels. The UNC job was the first Power 4 opener of this cycle.
  • Pluses: This is the best job on the market right now. Recruiting has a high ceiling and UNC has a history of developing successful quarterbacks. The investment is there, too — UNC is third in the ACC in football spending, behind Florida State and Clemson.
  • Cons: UNC hasn’t won an ACC title since 1980. It has reached 10-plus wins just once since 1998. The potential is there, but the history has almost always been surprisingly mediocre.
  • Candidates: Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has long been destined for a Power 4 job. Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann is Kirby Smart’s right-hand man and has been in the mix for head coaching jobs.

Purdue: B (Full job profile)

  • Who’s out? Ryan Walters was fired a day after his Boilermakers lost 66-0 to Indiana to end a historically bad season. Walters went 5-19 over two years.
  • Pluses: The administration is stable, and Purdue’s Big Ten status suggests it should be able to pay well (but it paid Walters a low $4 million salary).
  • Cons: The outlook on the field seems bleak as Purdue just finished as the worst Power 4 team and is suffering from an identity crisis.
  • Candidates: Army head coach Jeff Monken has the Black Knights on the brink of an AAC title this year. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson has been loyal in the past, but limited resources caught up with the demon deacons this season. Maybe he’s ready for a change of scenery.

West Virginia: B (Full job profile)

  • Who’s out? Neal Brown, after six seasons and a 37-25 record.
  • Pluses: The program has a history of success, missing only one bowl game since 2002. Although there has been a recent skid — the Mountaineers are only one of three Power 4 programs not to crack the Top 25 since 2018 — tradition is there.
  • Cons: The university is in turmoil. Enrollment fell below 25,000 in the fall, and President E. Gordon Gee plans to retire after his contract expires next June.
  • Candidates: Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez went 60-26 as WVU’s head coach from 2001 to ’07. Would he return? Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton has seen consistent success despite plenty of turnover from coaches and players.

UCF: B. Analysis is via Athletics‘s Matt Baker:

  • Who’s out? Gus Mahlzan resigned to join Mike Norvell’s staff at Florida State as offensive coordinator.
  • Pluses: Potential. It’s a power program in the middle of one of the top four football states in the country. It has an identity that also fits the area.
  • Cons: Youth. The program has gone from Division III to Power 4 in less than 50 years. It’s relatively new to the Big 12, and there are still some growing pains there financially, depth-wise, etc.
  • Candidates: Former UCF head coach Scott Frost (currently an analyst with the Los Angeles Rams) was someone fans were talking about immediately. Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell is the name we last heard.

Quick snaps

Watch out: College football programs that change coaches should keep their identities … or suffer like Purdue.

Official Heisman Trophy the ballots opened this week and the finalists will be announced on Monday. Travis Hunter received every single first-place vote Athleticss straw poll this week.

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(Top photo: John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)